Trade Wrapup - 20080421-22

Hey gang... I am out most of the week, but have been popping in every once in awhile to post some things I'm seeing as I work on other projects.

Yesterday the only call I posted was Ryder Sys Inc. (R) for a breakdown short. It triggered early this morning after basing throughout yesterday at lows despite larger market strength.

R Short Setup


Today:
10:32 Futures support call for a reversal off lows as a bounce. This call was based upon a 100 tick momentum reversal pattern forming in the S&Ps and Dow and went on to hit the second target objective on this type of play.

Support


10:38 FCX given as base at highs for an upside breakout. Pattern breakout type A. It rallied for more than a point to hit initial target objectives at $121, but larger target of $122 was not met and the remainder was closed with a trailing stop. (This update posted at 11:22 ET)

FCX Buy Setup


12:28 Notice that IPI triggered a "D" style breakout. It triggered over $49.30ish and was trading about $49.75 when I posted, but was given as to watch for cont. of the pattern since this often will pullback a little and then go again. It is currently 12:31 and it it pulling back. $52.35 was given as target zone. This is an IPO though, so it can be rather volatile.

For information on A, B, C, D, or Z template patterns, please see http://tradingfrommainstreet.com/images/roomexamples/BREAKOUT_TEMPLATE.gif
The green circle is the entry with the red bar as the stop.

IPI Buy Setup


12:34 ET - ES Support Levels:
1373.68 ish is ES 62% fib retracement back to 17th lows
about 1370.31 is the 38% retracement back tothe lows of the 15th on the ES
it is also the zone of lows from the 18th
so those are some upcoming support levels to watch coming up
1366.75 is close from the 17th for the gap closure on the ES

13:14 YM Support: "YM just hit 38% retracement back to the 15th lows... also the price congestion from 16th highs and 17th afternoon into 18th morning... this was also equal move support in YM compared to drop from Friday highs to Monday morning lows"

13:33 NFLX low level base at whole number support from $30 with pattern for more downside.

NFLX Short Setup


Larger correction on 15 min time frame
13:33 charlie1 : Toni..do u see a rally this afternoon? inquiring minds want to know!
13:34 Toni-WeekOff : well we have a two-wave pullback now on the futures on the 15 min time frame
13:34 Toni-WeekOff : equal move levels hit 13
13:34 Toni-WeekOff : so this is a major support zone 13:34
Toni-WeekOff : need momentum to shift though
13:35 Toni-WeekOff : a 2B at lows would be good
13:35 Toni-WeekOff : if it can do that then the odds will be higher for an afternoon rally that is not quite as choppy
13:35 Toni-WeekOff : that is a risk if it just goes from here since the selling pace was pretty steep
13:36 Toni-WeekOff : the 15 min 20 sma is going to be resistance as it was yesterday
13:36 Toni-WeekOff : definitely expecting a larger 15 min correction though
13:36 charlie1 : good i can work with that!

14:23 Toni-WeekOff: watching this correction in the futures...might just turn into a 15 min bear flag.... still lots of room to correct but trying to correct more through time so far
14:23 charlie1: is selling today on light or heavy vol?
14:24 Toni-WeekOff: volume is a little heavy but not much
14:24 charlie1: good
14:25 charlie1: nothing to worry about unless it was heavy vol today
14:25 Toni-WeekOff: for judging time of this correction... look at ES or YM yesterday from lows to close
14:25 Toni-WeekOff: then compare to the move from
13:0014:26 Toni-WeekOff: can take up to that long if this turns into a flag
14:27 Toni-WeekOff: still too early to really say and have room for some more upside in he interim

13:41-Toni-WeekOff : NFLX going
13:42-xr3 : IPI too
13:42-Toni-WeekOff : :)
13:42-Toni-WeekOff : looks good $48.80 is support zone
13:44-Toni-WeekOff : 52.30is IPI target.. whole numbers will be resistance...so reasonably would be 52 area
[13:45- Toni-WeekOff : NFLX the 50 cent levels are price support[13:45] missed but still a buy
13:45 -chastain : IPI b/o
13:46 -Toni-WeekOff : initial target support here NFLX... looking for about 29 rest

13:55 the ISRG momo reversal as a swing from the 11th hit second target level btw.. did it yesterday but still trading there today (was short from between 338-340, depending on trigger used... trading 279 zone with lows in 275 zone)

I will try to find time later today to post some of the charts for the calls on Friday and this week so far. I will not be in the trading room much this week, but will be back next week all day. It's been a pretty nice week thus far for activity thanks to earnings! Wishing you guys well!