Chat Posts Wrapup - 20080515

Hey gang, don't have a lot of time today, so just pulled out the market stuff and trade posts today and cut out the chatter....


09:40 deandlc1: Toni, You guys see a setup on CAT above 84.50
09:42 chastain: ENER
09:43 snarfieag: thanks for POT yesterday am, crack...out +4
09:44 Toni: think it can as long as the intraday momentum shifts more.. the daily is still good

09:45 snarfieag: toni, POT?
09:47 Toni: POT has resistance here intraday
09:47 Toni: good daily for upside though
09:49 Toni: NQ moving well from support
09:50 sedona: long A
09:51 Toni: initial NQ resistance
10:03 uhart: RIG
10:09 aOn: FCX
10:09 snarfieag: fwlt
10:11 Toni: market still pretty weak so far
10:11 Toni: holding premarket highs
10:12 Toni: am expecting slower corrective action from yesterdays descent
10:12 Toni: so can easily see a lot more back and forth action today
10:14 xr3: GS weak
10:15 xr3: but MER pretty strong
10:20 norancho: BARE breakdown
10:32 hermosaj: PRCP
10:38 hermosaj: WGOV
10:45 tanker: lg HES
10:48 LP: T...what do you think of the major indicies on a swing basis...does it look like it's due for a pullback?
10:48 sedona: FWLT 5mins flagging ...
10:54 Toni: what a slow morning
10:54 Toni: market is trying to correct from that drop yesterday
10:54 Toni: mostly choppy as expected
10:54 norancho: BARE scalp worked but miserable getting there
10:58 tanker: out HES +.71
10:58 norancho: little flag on SGR
11:04 aOn: nice job tanker!
11:05 Electron: nice T!
11:06 Electron: summer doldrums starting early this year?
11:06 xr3: POT testing high
11:08 tanker: thx guys
11:08 Toni: 15 min charts hitting 20 sma intraday resistance levels
11:10 MkTimer: Thanks Toni, shorted IWM
11:14 Wpg: BHI
11:14 chastain: I think all this juggling is pinning to options
11:17 Toni: nice mktimer
11:18 tanker: relong HES
11:18 MkTimer: took part off and rest b/e , thx for trade
11:20 Toni: min bear flag forming in BYI

11:20 Toni: opps
11:20 Toni: 5 min that is
11:26 Toni: main leader today is oil/enery related stocks
11:26 Toni: gold very strong also
11:28 tanker: RIG good--upgrade
11:31 charlie: HES basing
11:31 charlie: VMW testing hod
11:31 opw3: VMW, just paased on it at 69
11:32 opw3: paased=passed
11:32 tanker: FWLT
11:32 sedona: FWLT
11:32 opw3: good decision in hindsight
11:32 charlie: i was in at 69.18 and sold before 70
11:32 opw3: cool
11:33 charlie: keep watching SPWR for bottom
11:36 Toni: indices have avalanche potential
11:36 Toni: 2-5 min
11:36 Toni: 11:36:37 Avalanche: For more information on this setup, please see http://www.tradingfrommainstreet.com/techanalysis.html#4

11:38 charlie: in SPWR tight stop
11:40 charlie: stop SPWR -.11
11:43 Toni: that IWM still going nice of the futs resistance earlier
11:44 Toni: n1 mktimer
11:44 Toni: russell also leading on the avalanche
11:45 Toni: was a bit earlier than ideal for the avalanche trigger so can be tougher to get an equal move
11:45 Toni: fitst bit of support here
11:46 Toni: NQ can form an "A" pattern ont he 1 min for a cont
11:46 MkTimer: out rest IWM, thx for trade
11:46 Eternum: Toni, you mean upside move is not long enough in this avalanche?
11:46 Toni: that the base was not as long as ideal along the 5 min 20 sma
11:47 Toni: NQ triggered on a "D" setup after only basing for same amount of time as the drop
11:47 Toni: ideally it will be about twice as long
11:47 Eternum: Yeah, that's what my question was, ty Toni
11:47 Toni: other wise even on a cont it can just slide lower and then end up forming a longer setup like a larger time frame bull flag
11:48 Eternum: got it ty
11:48 Toni: or it can pull back up slowly into the base and then go
11:48 Toni: so you'll get a slightly lower low within that would be considered that base of two times the drop time
11:49 charlie: 121 holding on HES
11:53 norancho: did I mention that I hate SPWR
11:53 Toni: BYI I dont like the pace change ont he 1 min but will watch it again for later this afternoon for larger 15 min avalanche
11:55 norancho: like look of ETR for more, but may take a day or two
11:56 norancho: LDK forming a bottom, maybe
11:56 Toni: i'm gonna back off a bit and just let this chop play out here a bit in the indices
11:56 Toni: the futs are holding that first support
11:57 Toni: russell has the best relative weakness today
11:57 Toni: nasdaq again with the most relative strength
11:58 Toni: 2 min resistance btw here
11:58 Toni: bbs!
11:58 tradervanya: yea, but you going to have to be really patient to short today.
11:58 Toni: yeah everything pretty scalpish so far and with that move yesterday its likely to remain such
11:58 charlie: VMW
12:00 sedona-away: http://www.tharptradertest.com/default.aspx?question=1
12:00 sedona-away: quiz for what kind of trader are u
12:01 charlie: SPWR small bounce off bottom so far
12:02 charlie: VMW took off
12:04 snarfieag: any opinion on DE intra day?
12:04 chastain: look at DE put options
12:24 Toni: futs at resistance from mid-day prices yesterday
12:25 Toni: gotta step out for about 30-45 min
12:32 norancho: LVS interesting
12:47 mtl: BHI OIH in freefall
12:52 aOn: STV yummy
12:53 aOn: hmmmm, junxed
12:54 aOn: jinxed
13:06 norancho: would like to see LVS break 75
13:10 aOn: GU coil
13:26 Toni: 28th-29th drop and rally and 12-13 drop and rally both very similar to action from yesterday to today as guides
13:27 Toni: in the indices
13:27 Toni: FWLT base at highs

13:33 charlie: FCX...watching it for scalp
13:40 Toni: BYI coming into first support from morning lows
13:46 aOn: Toni - MYGN some kind of a momo rev?
13:47 Toni: yeah
13:47 aOn: thx
13:48 aOn: thxbid base hi
13:48 aOn: BID base hi
13:51 aOn: Toni - do you think WGOV can still get some back wind or basically done for the day?
13:52 xr3: GOOG looking a little bear flaggy
13:52 charlie: HES :120 a maybe scalp
13:58 Toni: 5 min futs bull flag

14:00 charlie: HES not going to go
14:04 charlie: watching CF :137.75 for a scalp
14:06 Toni: BYI support 5 min
14:06 opw3: Toni, what was your trigger on BYI?
14:07 snarfieag: rimm jeez
14:07 MkTimer: Long IWM
14:08 MkTimer: thx toni confirmed my buy b4
14:09 lebarg: big buyer in RIMM
14:11 Toni: 41.70 on BYI short
14:12 xr3: GOOG not following mkt higher
14:12 Toni: looks good mk
14:13 MkTimer: IWM taking parts here, rest have b/e stp
14:13 MkTimer: thx for confirm to buy
14:14 Toni: yw
14:15 xr3: GOOG sellage
14:18 Toni: ER trading a lot more smoothly than the other indices today
14:18 Toni: ER= russell 2k emini
14:18 Toni: IWM is the also russell btw
14:19 Toni: for those that dont trade indices
14:19 Toni: can see the flag best on it
14:20 tradervanya: there was a small bull flag in er2 but this is still bascally a scalping day.
14:21 Toni: am still thinking we can get re test of yesterday highs zone in the nq/es/ym just based upon the trend play
14:21 frank: toni fwlt still looks good to you?
14:21 frank: and do you have a target on it?
14:22 Toni: yes... momentum is trying to shift but this type of 15 min pattern usually retakes prior highs (market reference here)
14:22 Toni: so odds are most likely for it
14:22 frank: you mean 78.04
14:23 Toni: from feb (re: fwlt)
14:23 Toni: my pointer thingy seems lost
14:23 Toni: so not sure that exact price
14:23 Toni: but there about yeah
14:23 frank: 79.65
14:23 frank: 2/25
14:24 Toni: yes
14:24 frank: k from your mouth to gods ears
14:24 Toni: aha! price tool stuck behind mirc
14:24 charlie: norancho...see pm
14:25 Toni: hate when my puter decides to play hide and seek with things
14:25 charlie: the cat did it
14:25 Toni: been watching cetv
14:25 Toni: potential short
14:25 Toni: but man...
14:25 Toni: i really dont like how thin that thing is
14:26 Toni: not as pretty as BYI was
14:26 charlie: what do u think of ICE here as a short
14:26 * Toni slaps charlie around a bit with a large trout
14:26 Toni: sry that is preprogrammed response for ICE questions
14:26 charlie: lol
14:27 tradervanya: oild mounted an impressive retrace to the close so I don't know about the indicies testing the highs today.
14:27 Toni: market has been taking drugs and is in denial refusing treatment
14:29 Toni: even a flush with this type of 15 min action can recover given the larger market pattern
14:29 Toni: nasdaq really formed the best for a reversal type patterns
14:29 Toni: was the momo reversal and flush for 4th high
14:30 Toni: which is a good variation on that pattern
14:30 Toni: on 400 tick
14:30 Toni: sry
14:30 tradervanya: oil is never going down in our lifetime! LOL
14:30 Toni: 12:30ish first high
14:30 Toni: 12:41ish 2nd
14:30 Toni: 13:05 third
14:30 Toni: thent he flag
14:31 Toni: then 14:09ish 4th
14:31 Toni: that is 400 tick NQ
14:39 Toni: FWLT hitting 15 in 20 sma
14:39 Toni: want to see a reaction here
about flushes holding better... market bouncing back with more decent pace than typical rounded highs would lead to
14:47 Toni: want to really be careful this last hour... this has been a very choppy day even though its been a trend day
14:48 LP: Toni...what's you outlook on the indicies for the next few months...or during the summer doldrums
14:48 Eternum: Toni, this rally goes on really light volume in futs
14:48 Toni: have been expecting a correction over the summer
14:48 Toni: yeah.... most volume in the last few weeks has been with downside moves
14:49 LP: do you have any targets in mind for the S&P? also where would you place a stop if you shorted here
14:49 Toni: i think it can turn really any time
14:49 Toni: i mean we are int he zone of resistance ont he weekly time frames
14:49 Toni: so its just getting that shift on the daily now i think
14:49 Toni: earnings season is practically over
14:49 LP: where would your stop be...if you were short
14:49 Toni: so that might be all thats needed
14:50 tanker: bbl
14:50 Toni: on SPY?
14:50 LP: yeah
14:50 Toni: just sec
14:50 Toni: will take a look
14:50 snarfieag: RIG nice today
14:51 tradervanya: it is no coincidence that the mkt has been doing well when hillary wins.
14:51 Toni: 142.65 is the 62% fib level for that drop from dec to lows
14:52 tradervanya: I think that will all change soon after she is oficially out of the race.
14:52 LP: girl power?
14:52 Toni: if that breaks then next resistance isnt until 145.46
14:52 LP: I was think of selling a Jun 143 vertical call spread...
14:52 Toni: i think it might still try a slightly higher high for a flush ont he daily so would be willing to give it just a little room
14:52 LP: Sell the 143 and Buy a 147...
14:52 Toni: over the 142.65 even using that tighter level
15:00 norancho: VMW on fire, but man, is it ever hard to buy here
15:00 charlie: STP testing 47 for the 3rd time
15:12 Toni: FWLT going nicely right off that 15 min 20 sma
15:12 Toni: has a little resistance in here
15:17 Toni: FWLT not sure there is enough time for it to flag
15:17 Toni: but typoically would get a bit of a pullback here
15:17 Toni: with 5 min 20 sma support for a flag
15:17 norancho: LVS broke 75, and of course I got out too soon
15:18 hermosaj: any chance of this WGOV going any further?
15:19 Toni: looks like it
15:19 Toni: has a great 15 min
15:19 charlie: ICE
15:19 Toni: can easily trend higher into 15:30

15:19 Toni: WGOV
15:20 Toni: was a great "d" on the 15 min
15:20 Toni: now why didnt my scans pick it up :(
15:20 opw3: yea, head it marked, forgot to set the alert
15:20 Toni: didnt even come up here
15:21 opw3: its not high volume usually
15:21 Toni: my scans today actually havent been very good
15:21 hermosaj: think i mentioned it this morning too
15:21 Toni: mostly just giving me slop
15:35 Toni: can see this correction trying on FWLT at that resistance
15:35 Toni: but not time for a 5 min flag like i said
15:35 Toni: so might just hold here
15:36 Toni: futs did good job moving higher but were more choppy as expected
15:36 Toni: ER even joined in the slop
15:41 Toni: market made it back to those highs :)
15:51 norancho: well, scalped a little off WGOV, thanks hermosa
15:51 norancho: and Toni