Chatroom Trade and Commentary Notes - 20080505

8:37 ET yhoo might be good for a bounce (out of the open... was referencing earlier question on how to trade the news) actually given the extent of the gap on that particular stock (opened at $23.05)
10:15 yhoo doing decent job of bouncing has first resistance hitting at the 24 zone

9:35 dow leading market on the downside

9:37 FCX on upside watch list today (10:14 $114.65 "D" trigger, 11:04 $115.05 "A" pattern trigger)
11:33 fcx coming into first restiance ($115.75)

9:53 ANR on upside breakout watch list (10:42 $54.65 "D" style trigger, 11:05 $54.80 "A" style trigger, or 11:20 $55 "C" style trigger)
11:28 just took a bit off ANR... resistance from morning high ($55.50-$55.65 resistance zone)

9:54 yeah (i) like that clr also (for upside breakout)... (10:13 trigger $48.77 or 10:30 over $49.50)
10:38 clr first resistance zone here for those following it ($51.35)

9:56 futs at a bit of resistance here

9:56 HES maybe but momo needs to change intraday... would be upside breakout that is (momo changed and triggered an "A" pattern at 10:10 over $109.15)
10:29 HES back at upper end of the range
10:36 HES "a" pattern from earlier hitting initial resistance ($110.00)

10:03 lot of the things that are in high level bases showing weakness in the bases

10:26 saw tdw too late (educational example) :( was trading 58.90 and didnt want to chase... really nice daily on it
member: you like the tdw daily toni? for trapped longs having to sell?
me: yep ISRG had similar action onthe 18th same concept... that daily pattern usually closes near day's lows but can put in most of th emove in the morning and then just chop in the afternoon... FSLR thursday was also similar daily type of trap

10:35 (discussing MEE in the room) "i had MEE btw as momo short scalp into 10:00 on 50 tick chart for those studying that pattern" (educational example... did not have time to call it due to the time frame... trade was over by 10:15 ET)

10:55 WFR base at lows intraday volume and pace in the range are cons

10:59 NQ at premarket lows

11:04 ES 50% retracement zone back to may 1 lows
11:40 futs coming off first resistance from that 15 min support around 11 we were watching... its the 5 min 20 sma

12:01 i am not sure what to make of the market for this afternoon.... futs are trying a 5 min phoenix but on the risky side

12:02 sedona : indices daily chart is toppy ... maybe not going anywhere today
12:03 Toni : yeah i dont have a lot of confidence in follow through today so far... just not seeing it... things getting stuck at first support and resistance levels only... daily is actually on the weak side in the indices for today

12:04 Kaizen: could 5m ES be forming avalanche pattern to upside?
12:05 Toni: yeah.. that would be a phoenix... risk is higher than averge for that setup right now though because it has a rapidly ascending triangle on the 5 min
12:05 Toni: 12:05:26 Phoenix: For more information on this setup, please see http://www.tradingfrommainstreet.com/techanalysis2.html#17
12:05 Toni: avalanche is the pattern off highs
12:05 Toni: phoenix is the pattern off lows
12:05 Toni: just flipped over
12:05 Kaizen: ok, thx
12:27 Toni: can see on that phoenix that it technically broke the upper channel line but essentially formed a trap
12:27 Toni: any time you have a very tight rising triangle after it comes off lows the odds increase it will trap buyers
12:27 Toni: so i like to see two lows in a phoenix or base
12:28 Toni: reduces that risk substantially
12:38 Toni: the NQ actually has two lows in now on the 2 min along this 5 min 20 sma


Discussion on ANR Buy Setup
13:00 Toni: i am counting on ANR to make my day ... i fed it part of my veggie burger to help keep it happy
13:00 Toni: it seems to like veggie burgers
13:01 crack: where will u puke ur veggie burger?
13:02 Toni: i was late...55.20 then added back at 55 just before the lastpop
13:02 crack: wheres ur stop now?
13:02 Toni: crack stop talking mean to it!
13:02 Toni: under 54.6
13:03 Toni: had order in for 55.86 part but missed by a penny :/
13:05 norancho_: ANR ran out of gas on veggie burger, that doesn't happen with hamburger
13:05 Mykonos: ANR heavy sellers
13:05 Toni: crack induced vomiting in ANR :(
13:06 Toni: yeah...stocks dont usually go anywhere on hamburgers... sit on the couch with their beer waiting for the prices to come to them
13:06 Toni: :)
13:06 norancho_: you say that like it is bad
13:06 Toni: lol
13:06 norancho_: :)
13:08 Toni: i had .35 cent slippage off the high on partials for being 1 cent off drrr
13:09 Rory: what did you like about anr
13:11 Toni: the main thing that first caught my eye was the daily chart
13:11 Toni: if you look you can see it had two waves of correction
13:11 Toni: coming in between the 20 and 50 sma
13:11 Toni: you can probably see that better on a 60 min
13:12 Toni: volume was on the light side on the selling
13:12 Toni: and two wave corrections can easily form continaution patterns
13:12 Toni: it actually triggered as such on friday
13:12 Toni: but congested into the close
13:12 Toni: which was good because had it ran into the close the gap could more easily be an exhaustion gap
13:12 Toni: since this was a base into the close on friday
13:13 Toni: and a daily setup after two waves of correction
13:13 Toni: you are more likely to get a trend day off that type of gap
13:13 Toni: i look at all daily charts that look like this for intraday buying ops
13:13 Toni: and use the template:
13:13 Toni: 13:13:41 Breakout Template: For information on A, B, C, D, or Z template patterns, please see http://tradingfrommainstreet.com/images/roomexamples/BREAKOUT_TEMPLATE.gif The green circle is the entry with the red bar as the stop.
13:13 Toni: for timing them
13:13 Toni: will look for two wave corrections intraday
13:13 Toni: or other forms of base breakout
13:14 Toni: ANR had a couple potential entry triggers which i posted in the blog
13:14 Toni: i caught the last one
13:14 Toni: then the continuation
13:14 Rory: i see what your talking about on light volume sell off
13:14 Toni: which was actually a two-wave buy on the 15 min
13:14 Toni: the light vlume since 11:30 was the reason to add on in the $55 zone
13:15 Toni: i was looking at 56 as initial target zone but when something starts at a whole number it often will stall at .86-.92
13:15 Toni: so i just used the lower end of that since it has been a bit wider in a spread
13:16 Toni: when it hit .85 and began to turn though i had to change my order fast because i knew it would at least pullback to the 5 min 20 sma and since i'd added to the position i wanted to protect that addition at the first main resistance
13:16 Toni: but was slow
13:16 Toni: well.. it went fast
13:17 Toni: usually wont drop like a rock like it did this time
13:17 Toni: i am actually gonna go ahead ans scratch
13:18 crack: done any stat work on size/% gap leading to trend day on these type of plays?
13:18 Toni: this momo change is not positve and the market is having trouble holding up
13:18 Toni: it has a 15 min 2 wave cont short it is trying
13:19 Toni: the last work i did was last summer.. with the base into the close and that two wave pullback it was about 90% on at least having a trend morning or else closing near day's highs
13:19 Toni: it has a higher failure rate when the overall market is very extended
13:20 Toni: but in an iffy market the odds are still that high
13:20 Toni: so like int he middle of a trend move on a daily int he overall market
13:20 Toni: will still give strong follow through on that type of daily in an individual stock
13:20 Toni: got .92 btw
13:21 crack: will u flip and ssh it under any conditions?
13:21 Toni: this might still try again but my odds dropped a lot
13:21 Toni: the ones i will short are
13:21 Toni: say you have that pullback ont he daily or 60 min
13:21 Toni: then it turns
13:22 Toni: runs off lows
13:22 Toni: then continues the next day
13:22 Toni: thent he third day it gaps up
13:22 crack: pbr clears daily swing hi's
13:22 Toni: will look to play that either as scalp up fast in first 60 min
13:22 Toni: or reverse
13:22 Toni: for short
13:22 Toni: because it tends to not follow through more than 60 min
13:23 Toni: often not more than 15
13:23 Toni: this particular one i wouldnt short because the daily is too strong and doesnt show trend exhaustion yet intraday
13:24 crack: if you only had one pattern to trade which one would it be?
13:24 charlie1: the one that wins
13:24 Toni: momo reversals
13:24 crack: recent example?
13:24 crack: tdw?
13:24 Toni: BIDU just had one into 13:00
13:25 Toni: short
13:25 crack: what is the time frame and trigger?
13:25 Toni: can see it on a 1 min
13:25 Toni: or 50 tick
13:26 crack: u ssh that little 1mn pullback to 377 zone?
13:26 Toni: i draw a channel line under lows into that last high that made a slightly higher high and short the channel break
13:26 Toni: then place stop over the highs
13:26 crack: can u post a pick on ur blog?
13:26 Toni: if it stops out coming off a third time then i take 1.5 risk on it off a fourth high
13:27 Toni: like bidu you might havetaken just before 12:45 off the third high
13:27 Toni: at 377 area
13:27 Toni: and may have gotten flushed out
13:27 Toni: so then i take 1 and a half risk units instead of regular one
13:27 Toni: coming off fourth highs
13:28 Toni: often there is slightly more time difference between third and fourth high
13:28 Toni: than betweent he first and second and second and third
13:28 Toni: which will be more comparable
13:28 Toni: that 15 min 2 wave cont short in the indices is under way btw
13:50 Toni: hope you enjoyed the day... for those with this two wave futs short it has next support at morning lows on es and friday lows on nq

BIDU Momo Reversal Short