Trade and Commentary Wrapup - 20080514

Note: Check back throughout the day for updates and most recent activity at this link.

08:56 Toni: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/massive-risk-looms-bulls-have/story.aspx?guid=%7B408286F4%2D996E%2D4E12%2DA584%2DAD9C0CB772FD%7D&dist=TNMostRead
08:56 Toni: a little premarket reading

08:58 Toni: Top name stocks with news heading into today namely earnings: BRCD DE ERTS AMAT WFMI
08:58 Toni: AMAT reported a 22 cent/share loss
08:59 Toni: WFMI reported a 29 cent/share loss with increased sales

09:00 Toni: futures took off for a second morning in a row out of 8:30 data
09:01 Toni: CPI

09:02 Toni: in political news Clinton won West Virginia last night

09:09 Toni: futs dealing with another momentum shift at the premarket highs following the data which took it strongly higher

9:58 ES has hit strong fib resistance at highs 1416 zone

10:08 not seeing much for decent cont patterns on the gainers lists

10:16 YM has pretty good relative strength today

10:32 bulls are really holding onto this

10:51 STP is forming 5 min bull flag

12:21 STP really moving off the "D" pattern on that 5 min (not given in the room but was still followed by a few traders so noting so people see the pattern)

10:52 note: ES has had three moves up now
11:23 futs doing a good job of holding that third time

10:52 btw.. i have an article on momo reversals coming out in july issue of one of the active trader mags... will let you know

10:22 2033 is NQ equal move level for the 30 min so can press into that still. i have been concerned that momo keeps trying to shift. i think the nas would lead any upside
LP: you mean shift down
Toni: right slower upside moves those can flush lower easily
Mykonos: STP good swing trade I think
Toni: yeah has to get through 50.. lots of resistance there 100 and 200 day sma, prior highs, whole number .. the intraday trend can push it into that into the morning but then would expect it to correct on a 60 min so would watch that correction until then just daytrade

12:42 AG potential on breakdown... would be break on the daily too
had trigger about 58.35 at 13:21 - can still form 5 min bear flag cont. $58 first support

12:43 ES on the 800 tick you can really see the pace changing... rolling over at the highs... thought the nas was gonna try one more last hurrah but its fizzling

12:53 market not giving up yet YM is actually forming 5 min "D". YM did hit 30 min equal move this am on that rally. momentum was stronger on it than the rally into the 12th highs so has room to try to push a bit more, breakdown in the market really should have started around that 12:30 attempt intead of popping back
13:07 YM "d" ont he move (triggered 12950)
13:16 YM first resistance (12977)
13:46 YM next resistance showing (12990) (out of position)


13:01 POT forming bull flag 5 min a bit higher risk on this one since it went into the base with just one last pop after slowing into 11
13:03 Toni: that is probably not a con most of you have ever considered but now you know :)
13:03 Toni: if you have a rally
13:03 Toni: then it slow.s... starts to round a bit
13:03 Toni: then pops
13:03 Toni: then bases at highs for a flag or such
13:03 Toni: it adds a con on it for a cont. like a flag
13:04 Toni: so will watch to see if it can give a small phoenix or such in the base
13:04 Toni: and only look for equal move based on the pop if it triggers
13:04 Toni: seo the 11:05-11:20 move
13:07 POT going but on tougher setup


13:05 billgi: toni, on stp would you look for target in 49.30 area ?
13:05 Toni: on a flag on stp would be about 49.50

13:14 DISH base at highs... con is extended 30 min

13:44 the NQ is almost at that equal move... its about 2033
15:07 today's NQ high 2032.75 .. i said 2033 hehe... so close! now its back to the open haha