Trade and Commentary Wrapup 20080701

The following is a wrapup of all my market calls and trade posts for Tuesday, July 1, 2008.

Instructions for Use:

When following along in the chatroom, futures posts are done most often as support / resistance calls with support as buy and resistance as short (or closing out open positions from the other direction. These are pivots. Other patterns are posted according to the pattern forming, such as the Avalanche on the NQ below, and a link showing how to trade the pattern is posted.

Stock calls are breakout patterns unless otherwise stated with bases at highs as buys and bases at lows as short. We use the following template:
http://tradingfrommainstreet.com/images/roomexamples/BREAKOUT_TEMPLATE.gif

There is a link giving instructions for accessing this free chatroom on the lower left side of the page at http://www.tradingfrommainstreet.com/


WRAPUP

09:34 Toni : on a gap this size, as long as it breaks the 15 min highs the gap should close
09:53 Toni : futures broke 15 min highs so decent shot at the gap closing
09:54 Toni : Tuesday, July 1, 2008
09:54 Toni : 7:45a.m. ICSC Chain Store Sales Index For Jun 28:
09:54 Toni : 8:55a.m. Redbook Retail Sales Index For Jun 28:
09:54 Toni : 10:00a.m. May Construction Spending: Previous: -0.4%.
09:54 Toni : 10:00a.m. Jun ISM Manufacturing Business Index: Previous: 49.6.
09:54 Toni : 5:00p.m. ABC/Wash Post Consumer Conf For Jun 29:
09:56 Toni : first bit of resistance
10:01 Toni : NQ gap closed
10:01 Toni : ES gap closed
10:01 Toni : YM gap closed



10:14 Toni : PKX is starting to base at lows
10:14 Toni : a longer congestion would be ideal to be more than just a fast scalp
10:34 Toni : PKX still basing at lows
11:44 AoN : Toni, tgt on PKX?
11:44 AoN : lod 1st?
11:45 Toni : yes, on this one $123ish.. usually wont use morning lows.. this would be partials though
11:51 dsb : what is the stop for PKX?
11:52 Toni : at this point i'm using over the $124 resistance zone
11:52 Toni : which is also the 5 min 20 sma zone
11:52 Toni : taking some off in here though
11:52 Toni : and just trailing the rest
11:52 Toni : 123.06 last
11:52 Toni : 123.09
12:06 Toni : looking like it can get a bounce here in a minute... PKX so willing to take gains any time



10:15 Toni : futs support
10:15 Toni : 5 min
10:34 Toni : futures at resistance from that move off support around 10:15

10:59 Toni : i am expecting some correction from the rally over noon
11:17 Toni : 800 tick ES formed a momo reversal short
11:17 Toni : I missed the initial trigger off the third high
11:17 Toni : 1276.5 is initial target
11:43 Toni : ES hit first target
11:53 Toni : next level on it is 1273.75 zone
11:56 Toni : here is second target on ES.. .final is that 10:15 low for the rest if you have any left
12:00 Toni : this is that zone for larger target slowing things up in here
12:01 Toni : here we go
12:01 Toni : it is now noon btw



11:47 Toni : as per todays newsletter...
11:47 Toni : i do think we can get another test of lows this week
11:48 Toni : before the market really can have a bounce on the daily time frame
11:48 Toni : so this would ideally look like a second 2B on the 60 min

11:48 Toni : got that first 2B i was talking about with the gap this morning and the bounce
11:48 Toni : so I am looking at more of a choppy afternoon
11:48 Toni : and room to fall again sometime tomorrow
11:49 Toni : so far its holding that pattern development

12:15 Toni : futures back into morning lows

12:30 Toni : market is showing some exhaustion finally



13:55 Toni: NEM forming 5 min avalanche
13:55 Toni: 13:55:54 Avalanche: For more information on this setup, please see http://www.tradingfrommainstreet.com/techanalysis.html#4
13:59 Toni: looking for 52.40-.50
13:59 Toni: NEM
14:00 Toni: first little support here at earlier lows but should break even if it bounces a little first
14:21 Toni: NEM needs to hold here
14:21 Toni: darn thing
14:22 Toni: have two wave pop on NEM
14:22 Toni: back to upper end of the range
14:22 Toni: so has to hold
14:32 Toni: got stopped nem



14:09 Toni: futures resistance in here
14:24 Toni: NQ is retesting highs
14:46 Toni: futs resistance