Toni Hansen's Online Trading Blog

Market Gains on Week, Pushing Against Daily Resistance

noreply@blogger.com (Toni Hansen) — Sun, 14 Mar 2010 18:41:00 +0000

DOW 10,624.69 (+12.85, +0.12%), NASDAQ 2,367.66 (-0.80, -0.03%), S&P 500 1,149.99 (-0.25, -0.02%)

Market Gains on Week, Pushing Against Daily Resistance

(Note: Unless otherwise stated, the index action described below relates to the EMini futures contracts for the respective indices. Actual index action may differ slightly in terms of pattern formation, although the market bias will remain the same.)

Good day! I am on the road a great deal over the next several weeks, but will endeavor to still put out at least a condensed version of my column throughout most of the time while I am away, although there will be several late night flights that will unfortunately prevent me from publishing every single night. Thank you for understanding and thank you for all the wonderful feedback I've received for providing this free daily column over the years.

All my best,
Toni Hansen

* All charts in today's column have been provided by MB Trading.

The market continued to push higher throughout most of last week, but the momentum showed signs of exhaustion as the indices butted heads with previous highs on the daily time frame. The data was mixed, with retail sales up, but consumer sentiment didn't jive. Consumers are still not very comfortable in the current economic realm and home sales have continued to disappoint.

On Friday the markets were relatively unchanged. The U.S. government reported that retail sales grew 0.3% in February, despite a drop in auto sales. Excluding autos, retail sales were up 0.8%. Economists had been anticipating a decline, although earlier reports had indicated strength. The Reuters and University of Michigan report on consumer sentiment also came out on Friday. The index fell from 73.6 to 72.5. Economists had been expecting consumer sentiment to improve to 74. Meanwhile, business inventories were flat after December's were revised to a 0.3% decline. Economists were expecting a 0.1% increase in January.

Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI)

Thursday wound to a close with the indices pushing higher out of a mid-day trading range. The market continued this push higher afterhours, resulting in a gap higher into Friday's opening bell. That open, however, ended up serving as the highs of the day. The gap came at upper trend channel resistance, which can be seen on the 15 minute SPY. Selling hit immediately, but the initial drop was short-lived. It continued lower into 10:30 ET. The market finally found support at the 15 minute 20 sma intraday in the Nasdaq and S&Ps. This initial 30-minute range held throughout the remainder of the session.

Volume was light as the market congested. The Nasdaq bounced well off the morning lows, but fell short of a re-test of highs. It held this strength intraday nevertheless, while the S&P 500 and Dow remained in the lower half of the day's range into the close.

S&P 500 ($SPX)

The Dow Jones Ind. Average's ($DJI) ended Friday's session at 10,624.69 with a gain of 12.85 points, or +0.12%. General Electric (GE) was the best-performer in the Dow. It posted a gain of 3.40%. It was followed by a 2.48% gain in Caterpillar (CAT) and a 1.62% gain in American Express (AXP). The weakest performers were Bank of America (BAC) (-1.58%), Pfizer (PFE) (-1.21%) and Travelers (TRV) (-0.86%). The Dow ended the week higher by 0.55%. Year-to-date it is up 1.89%.

The S&P 500 ($SPX) fell 0.25 point, or 0.02%, and closed at 1,149.99. Supervalu (SVU) (+6.60) was the best-performer in the S&P 500 on Friday. Zimmer Holdings (ZMH) (+3.88%) and Paccar (PCAR) (+3.87%) rounded off the top three. Citigroup (C) was the worst-performer, down 5.02%. The S&P 500 ended the week higher by 0.99%. Financials were a major leader last week, while health-care providers were at the bottom. YTD it is up 3.13%.

The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX) ended the day at 2,367.66 with a loss of 0.80 point, or 0.03%. The Nasdaq Composite ended the week higher by 1.78%. YTD it is up 4.34%. PCAR was the Nasdaq-100's top gainer on Friday, while Hologic (HOLX) was at the bottom of the list, down 3.32%.

Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX)

My outlook has not changed since Friday: The indices are once again due for a larger daily-weekly correction, but the intraday time frames have remained bullish. A great example of two strong buy setups took place on a 15 minute time frame of the Dow on Thursday, while Friday's bounce off the 15 minute 20 sma and upper level range in the Nasdaq also continued this bias. It is going to be very difficult to keep pushing higher this week despite the intraday pace remaining favorable. Each new high that is slightly above the last creates panic when prices retrace. Eventually this tends to lead to strong corrections. Tread lightly on the upside, but don't try to force shorts until the smaller time frames come into alignment with exhaustion at the larger daily resistance zone. Keep in mind that this is also a Fed week, in which the U.S. Federal Reserve will be announcing their interest rate decision. Rates are expected to remain unchanged, so the main focus will be upon whether or not the wording continues to reflect "low rates for an extended period".

Economic and Earnings Data for Next Week

noreply@blogger.com (Toni Hansen) — Sat, 13 Mar 2010 06:09:00 +0000

http://www.tonihansen.com

Economic Reports and Events This Week

Domestic:
Eastern Time Zone (GMT -5:00) (New York, Toronto)

Mar 15 8:30 AM Empire Manufacturing Survey Mar
Mar 15 9:00 AM Net Long-Term TIC Flows Dec
Mar 15 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Feb
Mar 15 9:15 AM Industrial Production Feb

Mar 16 8:30 AM Building Permits Feb
Mar 16 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Feb
Mar 16 8:30 AM Housing Starts Feb
Mar 16 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Feb
Mar 16 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Feb
Mar 16 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Feb
Mar 16 2:15 PM FOMC Rate Decision Mar 16

Mar 17 8:30 AM Core PPI Feb
Mar 17 8:30 AM PPI Feb
Mar 17 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 03/13

Mar 18 8:30 AM Core CPI Feb
Mar 18 8:30 AM CPI Feb
Mar 18 8:30 AM Initial Claims 03/13
Mar 18 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 03/6
Mar 18 8:30 AM Current Account Balance Q4
Mar 18 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Feb
Mar 18 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Mar

Domestic and Foreign:
Eastern Time Zone (GMT -5:00) (New York, Toronto)

Mar 14 20:01 GBP Rightmove House Prices Mar

Mar 15 01:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Feb
Mar 15 05:00 EUR Euro-Zone Employment Q4
Mar 15 08:30 USD Empire Manufacturing Survey Mar
Mar 15 09:00 USD Net Long-Term TIC Flows Jan
Mar 15 09:15 USD Capacity Utilization Feb
Mar 15 09:15 USD Industrial Production Feb
Mar 15 20:30 AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes

Mar 16 03:45 EUR French Consumer Price Index Feb
Mar 16 03:45 EUR French Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonized Feb
Mar 16 03:45 EUR French Consumer Price Index - Ex. Tobacco Index Feb
Mar 16 05:30 GBP DCLG UK House Prices
Mar 16 06:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Feb ***
Mar 16 06:00 EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) Mar
Mar 16 06:00 EUR German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) Mar
Mar 16 06:00 EUR Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) Mar
Mar 16 06:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Feb ***
Mar 16 08:30 USD Building Permits Feb
Mar 16 08:30 USD Export Prices ex-ag. Feb
Mar 16 08:30 USD Housing Starts Feb
Mar 16 08:30 USD Import Prices ex-oil Feb
Mar 16 08:30 USD Import Prices ex-oil Feb
Mar 16 08:30 USD Export Prices ex-ag. Feb
Mar 16 02:15 USD FOMC Rate Decision Mar 16 ***
Mar 16 16:00 USD ABC Consumer Confidence Mar 14
Mar 16 JPY Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision ***

Mar 17 05:30 GBP Bank of England Meeting Minutes
Mar 17 05:30 GBP Jobless Claims Change Feb ***
Mar 17 05:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate Jan ***
Mar 17 05:30 GBP GBP Average Weekly Earnings Incl. Bonus Jan
Mar 17 05:30 GBP Average Weekly Earnings ex. Bonus Jan
Mar 17 05:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate Feb ***
Mar 17 08:30 USD Core Producer Price Index Feb
Mar 17 08:30 USD Producer Price Index Feb
Mar 17 10:30 USD Crude Inventories 03/13
Mar 17 22:00 NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence Mar
Mar 18 01:00 JPY Bank of Japan Monthly Report
Mar 18 03:15 CHF Trade Balance Feb
Mar 18 04:15 CHF Industrial Production Q4
Mar 18 05:00 EUR Euro-Zone Current Account Jan
Mar 18 05:30 GBP Major Banks Mortgage Approvals Feb
Mar 18 06:00 CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) Mar
Mar 18 08:30 USD Core Consumer Price Index Feb ***
Mar 18 08:30 USD Consumer Price Index Feb ***
Mar 18 08:30 USD Consumer Price Index Ex. Food & Energy Feb
Mar 18 08:30 USD Initial Claims 03/13
Mar 18 08:30 USD Continuing Claims 03/6
Mar 18 08:30 USD Current Account Balance Q4
Mar 18 10:00 USD Leading Indicators Feb
Mar 18 10:00 USD Philadelphia Fed Mar

Mar 19 03:00 EUR German Producer Prices Feb
Mar 19 03:45 EUR French Wages Q4
Mar 19 08:30 CAD Consumer Price Index Feb ***
Mar 19 08:30 CAD Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core Feb ***
Mar 19 08:30 CAD Retail Sales Jan
Mar 19 08:30 CAD Retail Sales Less Autos Jan

*** Highly influential

Notice: The Bastiat Group, Inc. has attempted to verify the information contained in this calendar, however, any aspect of such info may change without notice. Foreign economic reports included in this list are only those deemed "medium to high impact".

Key Earnings Announcements This Week:

Monday, March 15, 2010
Before: AAON, AOB, BPZ (?), GSOL, GTXI, HWCC, OSTK (?), PGNX (?), RDNT, SGK, STRL
During: -
After: ATHN, ESC, GOK, HQS, MDVN, SSW, SQNM, CLUB

Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Before: ARIA, CFSG, CYPB, DSW, EVEP (?), FDS, FTK, GSI, MDZ, NGPC, SCR, TBSI
After: AIR, ABK, APP, JRJC, NKBP, DFS, DXPE (?), EM, FMCN, KONG, RUE

Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Before: ACMR, ATU, GIS (?), NWPX (?), WNI, HEAT, SMTS, TNP
During: -
After: CLC, CLD (?), DAC (?), GES, MLHR, IHS, NKE, STRI

Thursday, March 18, 2010
Before: BKS (?), CRAI, FDX, GME, MCS, NWY, ROST, SCVL, GASS (?), SMRT, VIP, WGO
During: -
After: COMS (?), ADUS, ADY (?), CTAS, ICXT, INXI (?), OMER (?), PALM, SPWRA (?), NCTY (?)

Friday, March 19, 2010
Before: PERY (?)
During: -
After: -

Note: All economic numbers and earnings reports are in line with those compiled by Briefing.com. Occasionally changes will occur that are made after the posting of this column and some companies have not confirmed their time, so always double check when taking positions overnight during earnings season! (?) = Not yet confirmed at the time the list was compiled.

Traveling

noreply@blogger.com (Toni Hansen) — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 07:25:00 +0000

Good day! I am on the road a great deal over the next several weeks, but will endeavor to still put out at least a condensed version of my column throughout most of the time while I am away, although there will be several late night flights that will unfortunately prevent me from publishing every single night. Thank you for understanding and thank you for all the wonderful feedback I've received for providing this free daily column over the years!!!

All my best,
Toni Hansen

Bulls Hold On

noreply@blogger.com (Toni Hansen) — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 07:23:00 +0000

DOW 10,611.84 (+44.51, +0.42%), NASDAQ 2,368.46 (+9.51, +0.4%), S&P 500 1,150.24 (+4.63, +0.4%)

Bulls Hold On

(Note: Unless otherwise stated, the index action described below relates to the EMini futures contracts for the respective indices. Actual index action may differ slightly in terms of pattern formation, although the market bias will remain the same.)

Good day! I am on the road a great deal over the next several weeks, but will endeavor to still put out at least a condensed version of my column throughout most of the time while I am away, although there will be several late night flights that will unfortunately prevent me from publishing every single night. Thank you for understanding and thank you for all the wonderful feedback I've received for providing this free daily column over the years.

All my best,
Toni Hansen

* All charts in today's column have been provided by MB Trading.

The market trended extremely well on Thursday, although the outcome was mild. The majority of the session was marked by a trading range, but support and resistance levels held perfectly and the waves of back and forth action were very smooth overall. The Dow formed a clear-cut trend exhaustion heading into the session, as shown below on a 15 minute time frame. Each wave of selling was very comparable to the past, making the trend more predictable once it began to show strong momentum coming off the third low. The bulls sealed the deal for the afternoon by hugging the upper end of the intraday channel. Volume declined and an adequate time had passed on a 60-minute time frame (mimicking the previous correction) that there was a strong upside bias for a breakout in the afternoon. The setup triggered coming out of the 14:00 ET correction period.

Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI)

The Dow Jones Ind. Average's ($DJI) ended Thursday's session at 10,611.84 with a gain of 44.51 points, or +0.42%. Only a handful posted a loss, and even those were fractional. The top gainers included Merck (MRK) (+1.63%), IBM (+1.58%), and Disney (DIS) (+1.44%).

The S&P 500 ($SPX) rose 4.63 points, or 0.4%, and closed at 1,150.24. Gamestop (GME) was the S&P 500's best-performer. It ended the session higher by 5.85%. Citibank (C) followed with a gain of 5.56%, while Zions Bancorp (ZIONS) rounded off the top three. National Semiconductor (NSM) was the S&P 500's worst-performer. It is actually currently triggering a much larger daily, swingtrade short setup. This will be well-worth keeping an eye on for a continuation setup intraday in that direction to take advantage of the larger daily momentum reversal off recent highs. I am looking for about $13.50 on it. It is currently trading at $14.34. Zimmer Holdings (ZMH) is another one to follow. It has a two-wave continuation short and Avalanche combo on the daily time frame with nice potential to develop a 30 minute continuation pattern that can take advantage of the larger daily potential of $50.75. It ended the session on Thursday at $57.03.

The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX) ended the day at 2,368.46 with a gain of 9.51 points, or 0.4%. Hologic (HOLX) surged 9.86% and was the Nasdaq-100's top performer. LCRX and NVDA were the worst on the day and also have strong potential for larger continuations on the downside on the daily and weekly time frames. Both are forming Avalanches on these time frames.

S&P 500 ($SPX)

My market outlook for Friday remains unchanged from Thursday: The indices still have the potential for a third push higher on a 60-minute time frame. Such an attempt began on Thursday following a correction spanning three days, which was comparable to the correction between the previous two rallies on that time frame. However, I am not convinced that the market has enough "oomph" to establish a strong third wave of upside. The Dow has more room to push higher on the daily time frame, but a more likely scenario is that that indices will shift momentum at the current resistance zone on this third attempt. In other words, there is high risk for a 2T type of double top on the weekly charts, particularly the S&P 500. This is formed when a slightly higher high fails due to larger trend extension, pace, resistance, or any combination thereof.

Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX)

The indices are once again due for a larger daily-weekly correction, but the intraday time frames have remained bullish. A great example of two strong buy setups took place on a 15 minute time frame of the Dow on Thursday. The first followed a three-wave selloff, effectively ending the trend into support, while the second was a great example of a 2-wave continuation pattern following the 3-wave downtrend's reversal. Tread lightly on the upside, but don't try to force shorts until the smaller time frames come into alignment with exhaustion at the larger daily resistance zone.

Market Surges on Latest Jobs Data

noreply@blogger.com (Toni Hansen) — Sat, 06 Mar 2010 05:10:00 +0000

Market Surges on Latest Jobs Data

(Note: Unless otherwise stated, the index action described below relates to the EMini futures contracts for the respective indices. Actual index action may differ slightly in terms of pattern formation, although the market bias will remain the same.)

Good day! Heading into Friday's session, I was inclined to believe that any attempt to push higher on the day would serve as a trap with the indices favoring a slightly longer congestion into early next week. In fact, the market continued to favor this range into the early morning hours. And then the latest jobs data hit the wires.

The market changed its mood immediately following this early morning economic release. The Labor Department surprised investors when it reported a 36,000 drop in U.S. non-farm payrolls. Conservative estimates had expected them to fall by 50,000, while others estimated a decline by as many as 90,000. Additionally, the nation's jobless rate remained steady at 9.7%. Analysts had expected it to tick lower. Payrolls data for December and January were also revised higher by 35,000. The market was thrilled by the news and buyers began to pour in immediately.

Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI)

In related news, temporary help jobs rose by 48,000 last month and average hourly earnings increased 0.1%. This data is a bit deceiving, however, when taken into account with consumer prices and the average workweek data. The average workweek fell from 33.9 hours to 33.8 hours. This means that average weekly earnings actually fell 0.4%. While average hourly earnings are up 1.9% over the past 12 months, consumer prices have climbed by 2.7%. Nevertheless, the participation rate in the labor force has been reportedly on the upside with longer-term unemployment on the decline.

The market rallied strongly following the morning data. The indices stepped higher throughout the morning until 10:30 ET. At that point the momentum began to shift. A slightly higher high was established heading into the 11:15 ET correction period, but this served to stall the day's rally and create the necessary change in momentum to create a larger, mid-day correction. The Nasdaq actually continued to make slightly higher highs on a 15 minute time frame throughout the remainder of the session. By the end of the day it had established three intraday highs, exhausting its upside about an hour ahead of the closing bell.

S&P 500 ($SPX)

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average, on the other hand, fell into a solid trading range until 14:30 ET when both indices ran into their 15 minute 20 period simple moving averages. This level served as strong intraday support and the indices broke sharply to new intraday highs in the final 90 minutes of trade. The rally stalled along with the Nasdaq, however, at 15:00 ET and all three indices based into the closing bell.

Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) ended the session on Friday at 10,566.20 with a gain of 122.06 points, or 1.17%. The Dow's top performers were Boeing (BA) (+3.63%), American Express (AXP) (+3.37%), Alcoa (AA) (+3.05%), J.P. Morgan (JPM) (+2.12%), and Disney (DIS) (+2.00%). Despite the strength in the overall market, there were still two Dow components that posted a loss: Microsoft (MSFT) (-0.14%) and Verizon (VZ) (-0.14%). The Dow managed a weekly gain of 2.3%.

The S&P 500 ($SPX) climbed 15.73 points, or 1.40%, and closed at 1,138.70. Dean Foods (DF) was a top gainer in the S&P. It rose 6.2%. It was followed by a 6.2% gain in Compuware Corp. (CPWR) and a 6.0% gain in Massey Energy Co. (MEE). The top losers were CF Industries Holding (CF) (-3.2%), Monsanto Co. (MON) (-2.2%), and Novell Inc. (NOVL) (-1.7%). The S&P 500 locked in a weekly gain of 3.1%.

The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX) ended the session higher by 34.04 points, or 1.49%, and it closed at 2,326.35 on Friday. InterMune Inc. (ITMN) was the Nasdaq's best-performer, up 59.4%, followed by a 34% gain in Westwood One. Inc. (WWON) Apple (AAPL) was the best-performer in the Nasdaq-100 with a gain of 3.91%. Ohio Legacy Corp. (OLCB) was the Nasdaq's biggest loser, down 25.5%. The Nasdaq-100's worst-performer was Qualcomm (QCOM) (-1.25%). The Nasdaq ended the week higher by 3.9%.

Crude oil futures ended the session higher, up from $80.21 a barrel on Thursday to $81.79 on Friday, while gold ended the session slightly higher at $1,1135.2 an ounce.

As we head into the new trading week, I am still expecting January's highs to serve as strong price resistance. Instead of an upside-down "V" type of formation at that level, however, I am expecting momentum to shift on the 30-60 minute time frames heading into that resistance zone. This is largely due to the rapid breakout on Friday, which took the indices higher out of a shorter period of correction than before. The result is that I'll be watching for a series of slightly higher highs into that daily resistance to change the pace of the buying, which would then trigger another reversal off that resistance zone. A slightly higher daily high in the Nasdaq is possible, but it will be more difficult for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Ind. Average.

Economic Reports and Earnings Events Next Week

noreply@blogger.com (Toni Hansen) — Sat, 06 Mar 2010 00:30:00 +0000

Brought to you by Toni Hansen
http://www.tonihansen.com

Economic Reports and Events This Week

Domestic:
Eastern Time Zone (GMT -5:00) (New York, Toronto)

Mar 10 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Jan
Mar 10 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 03/06
Mar 10 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Feb

Mar 11 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 2/27
Mar 11 8:30 AM Initial Claims 03/06
Mar 11 8:30 AM Trade Balance Jan

Mar 12 8:30 AM Retail Sales Feb
Mar 12 8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Feb
Mar 12 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Mar
Mar 12 10:00 AM Business Inventories Jan

Domestic and Foreign:
Eastern Time Zone (GMT -5:00) (New York, Toronto)
Mar 07 18:50 JPY Trade Balance - BOP Basis JAN
Mar 07 18:50 JPY Adjusted Current Account Total JAN
Mar 07 18:50 JPY Current Account Total JAN
Mar 07 EUR German Retail Sales JAN
Mar 07 JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook FEB
Mar 07 JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current FEB

Mar 08 01:45 CHF Unemployment Rate FEB ***
Mar 08 03:15 CHF Retail Sales JAN
Mar 08 04:30 EUR Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence MAR
Mar 08 06:00 EUR German Industrial Production JAN
Mar 08 09:00 CAD Housing Starts FEB
Mar 08 19:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance FEB
Mar 08 19:01 GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor FEB
Mar 08 19:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence FEB

Mar 09 00:00 JPY Leading Index JAN
Mar 09 03:15 CHF Consumer Price Index FEB
Mar 09 17:45 NZD Terms of Trade Index Q$
Mar 09 18:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence MAR
Mar 09 GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate FEB ***
Mar 09 20:30 AUD Home Loans JAN

Mar 10 03:00 EUR German Trade Balance JAN
Mar 10 03:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index FEB ***
Mar 10 03:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonized FEB ***
Mar 10 05:30 GBP Industrial Production JAN
Mar 10 07:00 USD Bloomberg Global Confidence MAR
Mar 10 14:00 USD Monthly Budget Statement FEB
Mar 10 16:00 NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand International Rate Decision ***
Mar 10 16:30 NZD Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index FEB
Mar 10 18:50 JPY Gross Domestic Product Q4
Mar 10 18:50 JPY Gross Domestic Product Annualized Q4
Mar 10 10:30 AUD Employment Change FEB ***
Mar 10 10:30 AUD Unemployment Rate FEB ***
Mar 10 21:30 AUD Full Time Employment Change FEB
Mar 10 21:30 AUD Participation Rate FEB

Mar 11 08:30 CAD International Merchandise Trade JAN
Mar 11 08:30 USD Trade Balance JAN
Mar 11 09:00 CHF Swiss National Bank International Rate Decision ***
Mar 11 14:00 USD New York Fed's Dudley Speaks to London Economists ***
Mar 11 16:00 NZD REINZ House Sales FEB
Mar 11 16:45 NZD Retail Sales
Mar 11 17:45 NZD Retail Sales Ex-Auto JAN

Mar 12 06:00 EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production JAN
Mar 12 07:00 CAD Net Change in Employment FEB ***
Mar 12 07:00 CAD Unemployment Rate
Mar 12 08:30 USD Advance Retail Sales FEB ***
Mar 12 08:30 USD Advance Retail Sales Less Autos FEB ***
Mar 12 08:30 USD Advance Retail Sales Ex-Auto and Gas FEB ***
Mar 12 09:55 USD University of Michigan Consumer Confidence MAR Prel.

*** Highly influential

Notice: The Bastiat Group, Inc. has attempted to verify the information contained in this calendar, however, any aspect of such info may change without notice. Foreign economic reports included in this list are only those deemed "medium to high impact".

Key Earnings Announcements This Week:

Monday, March 8, 2010
Before: AOB (?), BPZ (?), COMV, DGW, EBIX, FREE, PARD, YGE
During: -
After: SVN (?), ARNA (?), CAP, CPE, CASY, CFSG (?),Before: AOB (?), BPZ (?), COMV, DGW, EBIX, FREE, PARD, YGE
During: -
After: SVN (?), ARNA (?), CAP, CPE, CASY, CFSG (?), FRPT, HRB, MAKO, NCMI, OMER (?), RSCR, SNHY, NCTY (?), TIVO, VVUS FRPT, HRB, MAKO, NCMI, OMER (?), RSCR, SNHY, NCTY (?), TIVO, VVUS

Tuesday, March 9, 2010
Before: BRNC, CALP, CMN (?), CRIC, CODI, DKS, EJ, EXEL, GPOR, KR, LMIA, NXG, SSI, SWSI, TSTY
During: THO (?)
After: AONE, AVAV, ALOG, BIDZ, SAM, NKBP (?), PSS, DXCM, EXLS, FLOW, ICFI, JCG, NAV, SLXP, VRSK, ZIPR

Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Before: CAS, AEO, BONT, BF.B, CRZO, PLCE, CWEI, CPIX, ESLT, ELMG, FSIN, GSI (?), HRBN, HWK, HITK (?), NWPX (?), QLTI, SOL, TRK, RMIX, MTN
During: ABVT
After: AFCE (?), AACC, BLDP, CTAS (?), CLNE, CLD (?), CIE (?), DAC (?), FCEL, GYMB, HIL, HOTT, IDSY, IPAR, JAS, MW, MBLX, VITA, PRSC, SMTC, SQNM (?), STAN, TTGT, TCAP (?), WES

Thursday, March 11, 2010
Before: ARIA (?), ATPG (?), CPC, CSUN, DK, IMAX, JTX, LDK (?), MEA, NGPC, OSTK (?), PNY, PGNX (?), SFD, GASS (?), STEI, SUI, BKE, TICC (?)
During: -
After: ARO, AIRM, CCO, GOK (?), GMXR, GG, HQS, INXI (?), KOG, NABI (?), NSM, NPSP, OMPI, OPTR, PSUN, PLL, POWR, ZQK, SEAC, SHFL, SWHC, SPWRA, ULTA, ZUMZ

Friday, March 12, 2010
Before: AMCR (?), ANN, CTRN, CORE (?), EVEP (?), HIBB, KIRK, NVAX, PEI
During: -
After: CCRT

Note: All economic numbers and earnings reports are in line with those compiled by Briefing.com. Occasionally changes will occur that are made after the posting of this column and some companies have not confirmed their time, so always double check when taking positions overnight during earnings season! (?) = Not yet confirmed at the time the list was compiled.

© 2010 Toni Hansen. All rights reserved.

Indices Continue to Correct From February 25th to March 3rd Rally

noreply@blogger.com (Toni Hansen) — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 01:31:00 +0000

Indices Continue to Correct From February 25th to March 3rd Rally

(Note: Unless otherwise stated, the index action described below relates to the EMini futures contracts for the respective indices. Actual index action may differ slightly in terms of pattern formation, although the market bias will remain the same.)

Good day! The market was hit with a slew of economic data on Thursday, but the impact was short-lived as the indices continued to correct off this week's earlier highs via a momentum shift on the intraday, 30-minute time frame. The session began on a note of strength as the indices continued to pull higher off Wednesday's afternoon lows, which marked the lower end of this shifting trend channel intraday. The market continued to push higher throughout the first 30 minutes of the day as well, but hit the brakes when the 10:00 ET economic data was released.

Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI)

Ahead of the open the Labor Department reported on last week's jobless claims. Initial claims fell by 29,000 for the week, roughly in line with expectations. The four-week average fell by 3,500 to 470,750. Those continuing to claim state benefits fell to 4.5 million, but this does not include people who are receiving extended benefits paid by the federal government. In related news, productivity climbed to an annual rate of 6.9% for the fourth quarter of 2009, which was better-than-expected, while unit labor costs fell at a rate of 5.9%. This was larger-than-expected.

At 10:00 ET the Commerce Department reported that January factory orders rose 1.7%, which is the largest increase in four months. What shook the market, however, was the pending-home sales numbers for January. The National Association of Realtors reported that pending home sales fell 7.6%. Those that are buying, however, are seeing even lower mortgage rates. The 30-year fixed mortgage fell from 5.05% to 4.97% last week.

The strongest move of the session took place coming out of the home sales data. The markets held morning highs and rapidly reversed. Initial support hit around 10:15 ET, but the market only paused here with the Dow and S&Ps testing 5 minute 20 sma support before breaking sharply to new intraday lows into 10:30 ET. This breakdown did manage to hold support at the lower end of the 30 minutes trend channel, however, and the indices were extremely resilient throughout the remainder of the session despite volume remaining very light.

S&P 500 ($SPX)

The lower end of the 30-minute trend channel held and the market slowly began to recover its post-data losses. Initial resistance hit at the mid-way point around 11:15 ET, but the pace did not shift solidly enough to turn the market lower. The indices attempted a break higher around 13:30 ET, but lacked volume and pulled back before finally managing a more successful attempt out of the 14:00 ET correction period. A pullback to the 5 minute 20 sma into the 15:30 ET correction period created a solid 5 minute bull flag to help the market regain the remainder of its morning losses ahead of the closing bell.

Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) ended the session on Thursday at 10,444.14 with a gain of 47.38 points, or 0.46%. Disney (DIS) was once again one of the top Dow leaders. In fact, on Thursday it was THE best Dow performer with a gain of 2.94% following multiple upgrades. Other Dow components also benefited from upgrades. These included Coca Cola (KO) (+1%) and Boeing (BA) (+1.71%).

The S&P 500 ($SPX) climbed 4.18 points, or 0.37%, and closed at 1,122.97. A number of retailers released the latest sales data this morning, including Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), which topped the S&P 500's gainers list. It ended the session higher by 14.57%. Family Dollar (FDO) also topped the charts with a gain of 8.07%. ANF's sales for February were up 28%, while FDO's were up 14%. The S&P 500's Retail Index hit a new 52-week high in Thursday's session. Apparently they were not affected by the harsh winter weather, lending suspicion to claims that weather was a primary cause for the decline in pending-home sales. Health care stocks were amongst the day's biggest losers. This was particularly the case for insurance companies on speculation of March 18th as a goal for House-approved health-care legislation.

The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX) ended the session higher by 11.63 points, or 0.51%, and it closed at 2,292.31 on Thursday. Ross Stores (ROST) came in second in the Nasdaq-100, rallying 3.26% in conjunction with the rest of the retail sector. It was surpassed by Verisign (VRSN) as the top gainer. VRSN rose 3.55%. Dish Network (DISH) (-5.16%) was the Nasdaq-100's biggest loser after a U.S. court of appeals upheld a previous decision in which it, along with EchoStar (SATS), was held in contempt for violating TiVo's principal patent on its DVR software. TiVo (TIVO) shares, which had been stuck in a long weekly trading range, shot higher on the news. It had been trading at $10.30 a share. It was up to $16.39 within 45 minutes of the news hitting the wires.

Crude oil futures ended the session 66 cents lower on Thursday at $80.21 a barrel, while gold ended the session lower by about $10 at $1,1133.10 an ounce.

Although the indices ended the session at the upper end of the three-day trading range on Thursday, suggesting a bullish bias, the last daily correction lasted about twice as long in mid-February. This means that an attempt to break higher on Friday would be earlier-than-ideal and more likely to serve as a trap. For the indices to have a strong move back into January highs we would ideally need to see the market base out until the middle of next week. The weekly bias continues to favor the creation of a larger trading range with January highs serving as a very strong price resistance zone.

Is Weather Just a Flimsy Excuse For Declining Home Sales?

noreply@blogger.com (Toni Hansen) — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 19:54:00 +0000

"Pending home sales fell 7.6% in January due to bad weather."

We've been seeing this "weather" excuse cited over and over again in the news today, but I can't help but wonder whether or not weather was actually the main contributing factor in January's decline.

The ongoing housing struggle is nothing new to our ears, but as I sigh at my latest Zillow home estimate I can't help but think that we are still dealing with technical weakness in the housing market and that while the weather may have had a little bit of an impact, it wasn't nearly enough to explain away the most recent decline in homes sales.

This is particularly curious when I then read the latest retail sales data. The S&P 500's Retail Index just hit a 52-week high in today's session. Office Depot (ODP) reported a 30% increase in Feb. sales, while the S&P's best-performer, Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) reported a 28% increase. Macy's (M) sales were up 25%, and JC Penneys' (JCP) were up 18%.

Now, correct me if I'm wrong, but, while online sales may have contributed to some of the increase in retail sales so far this year, you still actually have to go out into the weather to frequent your local shopping mall. It is there, after all, that we find the top favorites such as Abercrombie & Fitch, Macy's, and JCPenney.

Granted, a mall is one-stop shopping. Once you manage to brave the weather long enough to make it into the mall, you are set. But sales were up in other retailers as well, such as Family Dollar (FDO), which is the S&P's second-best performer, and Ross Stores (ROST), which tops the Nasdaq-100.

So, if weather is really what is causing such a slump in home sales, one can't help but wonder why it hasn't had an impact on retailers as well. Perhaps the retail sales are up primarily as a result of consumers stocking up on inadequate winter wardrobes? Or maybe the impact of weather on the realty market isn't as strong as they want us to believe and the reality is a bit more depressing...

On a bit of a bright note for would-be home buyers, the 30-year mortgage rate dropped to 4.97%. If you would like to take advantage of this to purchase a lovely home in Southwest Florida, just let me know! I'm looking to move further south.... This weather is just a bit too cold for me!

Toni Hansen
Trader and Educator
http://www.tonihansen.com/

Market Reacts to Trend Extension by Slowing Momentum at 30-Day Highs

noreply@blogger.com (Toni Hansen) — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 05:16:00 +0000

Market Reacts to Trend Extension by Slowing Momentum at 30-Day Highs

(Note: Unless otherwise stated, the index action described below relates to the EMini futures contracts for the respective indices. Actual index action may differ slightly in terms of pattern formation, although the market bias will remain the same.)

Good day! Although the volume remained light in Wednesday's session, the market still had some nice intraday moves. As we were heading into the day, my outlook was favoring more of a shift in momentum on the 30-minute charts as a reaction to Tuesday's price resistance as opposed to a strong reversal. The indices followed through very well with this bias. They continued to climb out of the open on Wednesday after reversing from the late-afternoon, three-wave selloff in the final two hours of trade on Tuesday.

Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI)

Decent economic data on Wednesday morning assisted the bulls early in the session. The ADP employment report showed that the private sector shed 20,000 jobs in February. This was better than expected and was also accompanied by an upward revision of January's data to show a 60,000 loss that month. The overall unemployment rate now stands at 9.8%. On Friday the government will offer up its own unemployment report, which is expected to show a 50,000 drop in payrolls in February.

Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management reported that its index measuring the services sector of the U.S. economy rose from 50.5 in January to 53 in February, which was the fastest rate of growth since December 2007. Approximately 80% of the U.S.'s economic activity falls into this category.

The market trended higher throughout most of the morning on Wednesday, but the more rapid downside into Tuesday's close created enough of a shift in momentum to cause those daily highs to serve as a strong resistance zone. It was not too extreme, however, and this is what created the larger shift in momentum bias heading into the day. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Ind. Average both managed very slightly higher highs, thus shifting the momentum on the 30 minute trend channel and created a "rounded high" on that time frame.

The morning's upside took on the appearance of a steady climb, but within the channel itself it was very choppy with a great deal of overlap from one bar to the next on both the 5 and 15 minute time frames. The channel narrowed and the indices hugged the lower trend line more tightly just prior to noon. This indicated an upcoming price reversal as the Nasdaq rose into price resistance from Tuesday's highs. The 5 minute 20 sma was support initially, but broke very quickly into the early afternoon to confirm the mid-day reversal.

S&P 500 ($SPX)

Selling pressure quickly escalated. The indices found support around 13:00 ET and formed a textbook, 2-wave continuation pattern into 14:00 ET. The trigger for a continuation on the short side not only corresponded to the 14:00 ET correction period, but also the Fed's Beige Book. Despite the attempt to reassure us that the economy is showing signs of improvement, the market did not react favorably. The sharpest move of the session followed. All three of the major indices closed the morning gap, returning to the zone of Tuesday's lows. This took the markets into negative territory for the first time on the day, but the market managed to recover some of its losses in the final hour of trade with a rally back into the 5 and 15 minute 20 sma zone.

Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) ended the session on Wednesday at 10,396.76 with a loss of 9.22 points, or 0.09%. The top gainers were Coca-Cola (KO) (+1.18%), Cisco (CSCO) (+0.93%), General Electric (GE) (+0.82%), and Alcoa (AA) (+0.76%). Pfizer (PFE) was the worst-performer in the Dow. It fell 1.59%. Intel (INTC) (-0.87%) and Disney (DIS) (-0.75%) rounded off the top three.

The S&P 500 ($SPX) rose 0.48 point, or 0.04%, and closed at 1,118.79. Novell Inc. (NOVL) was the best-performer with a gain of 28% after hedge fund Elliott Associates put in an offer to buy the remaining 91.3% of the company that it did not already own. RadioShack Corp. (RSH) was the second-best performer with a gain of 5.84%, followed by a 5.32% gain in FMC Technologies (FTI). Staples (SPLS) continued its downward spiral after posting a disappointing outlook and downgrades to lead the S&P 500's losers. It fell 2.97%.

The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX) fell 0.11 points, or 0.00%, and it closed at 2,280.68 on Wednesday. Joy Global (JOYG) (+5.87%) and Paccar Inc. (PCAR) (+3.07%) were the Nasdaq 100's best-performers. Seagate Technology (STX) was the worst-performer with a loss of 6.57%, followed by SPLS.

Crude oil futures ended the session higher on Wednesday at $80.87 a barrel, while gold ended the session at $1,1143.30 an ounce.

The shift in momentum that began with Wednesday's strong price overlap of Tuesday's trade can easily continue into Thursday's session, although the upside will be a bit more difficult than on Wed. morning without help on the news front. New swingtrade positions will continue to be higher risk, while the weekly bias continues to favor the creation of a larger trading range with January highs serving as a very strong price resistance zone.

Thursday's Economic Data and Earning Reports

noreply@blogger.com (Toni Hansen) — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 01:41:00 +0000

hursday's Economic Data:
Mar 4 05:00 EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product Q4 ***
Mar 4 05:00 EUR Euro-Zone Gross Fixed Capital
Mar 4 05:00 EUR Euro-Zone Household Consumption Q4
Mar 4 07:00 GBP Bank of England Interest Rate Decision ***
Mar 4 07:00 GBP Bank of England Asset Purchase Target
Mar 4 07:45 EUR European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision ***
Mar 4 08:30 USD Initial Claims 02/27
Mar 4 08:30 USD Continuing Claims 02/20
Mar 4 08:30 USD Productivity-Rev. Q4
Mar 4 08:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q4
Mar 4 10:00 USD Factory Orders Jan
Mar 4 10:00 USD Pending Home Sales Jan

Thursday's Earnings Reports:
Before: ECOL, ARIA (?), AACC (?), ATPG (?), FLY, BRLI, CNQ (?), CIEN, CNSL, CRTX, DLM, ELMG (?), ENG, FSYS, GCO (?), GRB, GPX (?), HEES, HDIX (?), ISPH, MEI, MITI, MDS (?), TYPE, NAFC, BABY, ORN, PPCO, PRFT, RBA, GASS (?), STP, SXCI, TK, USPH, URBN, WW (?), WEN, WNR
During: -
After: JOBS, AHS, ARST, CPC, COO, DEPO, DXCM (?), BOOM, EBS, ERII, EQY, GOK (?), GA, INXI (?), MMLP (?), MRVL, MDSO, MENT, MOVE, PCTI, SONE, SGK (?), SLW, SPWRA (?), UDRL

Note: All economic numbers and earnings reports are in line with those compiled by Briefing.com. Occasionally changes will occur that are made after the posting of this column and some companies have not confirmed their time, so always double check when taking positions overnight during earnings season! (?) = Not yet confirmed at the time the list was compiled.

Indices Push Higher Throughout Session, But Slip Into The Close

noreply@blogger.com (Toni Hansen) — Wed, 03 Mar 2010 12:32:00 +0000

Indices Push Higher Throughout Session, But Slip Into The Close

(Note: Unless otherwise stated, the index action described below relates to the EMini futures contracts for the respective indices. Actual index action may differ slightly in terms of pattern formation, although the market bias will remain the same.)

Good day! The indices have had trouble showing strong volume over the past several days, but that has not stopped them from pushing into new highs on the week. We were expecting a bullish bias into Tuesday morning and the market did not disappoint. The indices gapped strongly higher after breaking free around 6:00 am ET out of Monday's afternoon range at highs. This congestion had continued throughout most of the afterhours trading activity and helped form a solid trading range into the early-morning hours.

As expected, Qualcomm was one of the most active issues in Tuesday's session. It had sold off sharply on Monday, ended the day at lows, but the company announced later in the day that it was raising dividends and had planned a $3 billion stock buy-back. The news was well-received and the stock trended strongly higher throughout most of the session until hitting resistance at its 10 and 20 day simple moving average, which converged in the $38.50 zone.

Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI)

After gapping to the upside the indices took the first 45 minutes of the day to catch their breath. Congestion took place with a slight pullback into the 5 minute 20 sma. Although the indices attempted to push to the upside again in the second half of the morning, the momentum shifted off opening highs and created a reversal pattern on the 5 minute time frame into noon. This is a typical correction period for the markets. The morning congestion held as support and the market made another attempt at highs into the mid-afternoon. This afternoon rally, however, was more gradual than the mid-day pullback, which allowed the zone of morning highs to continue to serve as strong resistance.

The strongest move past the open on Tuesday took place out of the 14:00 ET correction period. This is often the strongest correction period of the day and it held perfectly. The indices pivoted off very slightly higher intraday highs and formed a three-wave selloff throughout the remainder of the afternoon. This trend exhausted itself with the third leg of downside on a 2 minute time frame taking place just prior to the closing bell. The futures bounced afterhours and were fairly inactive well into the morning hours on Wednesday.

S&P 500 ($SPX)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) ended the session on Tuesday at 10,405.98 with a gain of 2.19 points, or 0.02%. Despite ending the session nearly flat, approximately 2/3 of the Dow's index components posted a gain. The leader was Disney (DIS), which ended the session higher by 1.08%, while Verizon (VZ) followed with a gain of 0.93%. Microsoft (MSFT) was the Dow's worst-performer with a loss of 1.93%. Bank of America (BAC) was the second-weakest with a loss of 1.50%.

The S&P 500 ($SPX) higher by 2.60 points, or 0.23%, and closed at 1,118.31. Qualcomm (QCOM) was the S&P 500's best-performer. It rose 6.66% after the company announced a dividend increase on stock buyback on Monday. Tersoro Corp. (TSO) followed with a gain of 5.07%. Massey Energy Corp. (MEE) rose 4.09% and was the S&P's third-best-performer. Staples (SPLS) was the S&P 500's worst-performer with a loss of 10.09%. American Intl. Group (AIG) was a distant second with a loss of 2.91%. Office Depot (ODP) was close with a loss of 2.90%.

The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX) up 7.22 points, or 0.32%, and it closed at 2,280.79 on Tuesday. QCOM was the Nasdaq-100's biggest gainer. It was followed by a 3.54% gain in Warner Chilcott (WCRX). SPLS was its biggest loser, followed by a 1.93% loss in Microsoft (MSFT).

Crude oil futures ended the session higher on Tuesday at $79.68 a barrel, taking back the previous day's losses, while gold closed substantially higher. It ended the session at $1,1118.30 an ounce on Monday, but rallied to a close of $1,137.40.

Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX)

Wednesday will be spiced up with several important data releases. The ADP employment data, which focuses upon private-sector employment trends, will come out in the early morning. Additionally, the Commerce Department will release the latest on oil and fuel inventories. Then, in the afternoon, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book report will be released.

The bias heading into Wednesday is favoring a correction off the week's intraday highs, but that correction has the potential to take place via a shift in the uptrend momentum instead of a price reversal. This means that it could creep higher with greater day-to-day overlap for a day or two as it corrects at this price level. New swingtrade positions will be higher risk. The larger weekly bias continues to favor the creation of a larger trading range with January highs serving as a very strong price resistance zone.

March Kicks Off With Technology Shares Leading Market Higher

noreply@blogger.com (Toni Hansen) — Tue, 02 Mar 2010 06:23:00 +0000

March Kicks Off With Technology Shares Leading Market Higher

(Note: Unless otherwise stated, the index action described below relates to the EMini futures contracts for the respective indices. Actual index action may differ slightly in terms of pattern formation, although the market bias will remain the same.)

Good day! Volume was light once again on Monday, but the indices experienced a strong session with technology shares leading the indices higher throughout the morning. The index futures had been trading sharply higher on Sunday, but turned lower once again in the early morning hours on Monday. At 8:30 am ET, however, the pullback found support and the market again reversed course within the larger 60-minute range following early-morning data and gained momentum into the opening bell.

Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI)

Among the morning's reports were the latest consumer spending and manufacturing data. Consumer spending was higher by 0.3% in January. This was the fourth straight month of increased spending, but shy of estimates for a 0.4% increase. December's data was revised to also reflect a 0.3% increase. Real disposable incomes, however, fell 0.6% in January with spending rising faster than income. Personal savings fell from 4.2% in December to 3.3% in January, which is the lowest level since October 2008.

In other news, according to the Institute of Supply Management, manufacturing continued to expand in February, but at a slower rate than earlier this year. February's ISM index fell from 58.4% in January to 56.5%. This was a stronger drop than expected. Construction spending also fell in January by 0.6%.

The post-data reversal back to highs did not get off to a rapid start, but it did have a steady one. It gained momentum into the opening bell, leading to a gap higher in the three major indices. Mergers were also among the major headliners for the day, such as the news that German pharmaceutical company Merck KGaA will buy biotech company Millipore, advancing it to a leader for the day in the S&P 500.

On Tuesday most of the buying took place in the morning. After gapping higher, the indices correction into 10:00 am ET, but then continued to step tot he upside on the 5 minute time frame. The momentum slowed heading into noon, but it didn't shift enough to offer a reversal strategy off highs. Instead, the indices closed just shy of their intraday highs and held that level into midnight.

S&P 500 ($SPX)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) ended the session on Monday at 10,405.83 with a gain of 80.57 points, or 0.78%. The top gainers included Intel (INTC) (+1.66%), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) (+1.48%), United Technologies (UTX) (+1.44%), and Caterpillar (CAT) (+1.40%). Only a handful of the the Dow's 30 index components posted a loss. They included General Electric (GE) (-1.00%), J.P. Morgan (JPM) (-0.33%), WalMart (WMT) (-0.31%), and American Express (AXP) (-0.16%). The financials were among the weakest shares in both the Dow and S&P 500.

The S&P 500 ($SPX) higher by 10.19 points, or 0.92%, and closed at 1,114.68. The S&P's best-performers were SanDisk (SNDK) (+11.94%), Millipore Corp. (MIL) (+11.11%), and Interpublic Group (IPG) (+10.13%). SNDK's gains followed an increase in its first-quarter sales forecast. The semiconductor index rose 3.1% on the day. Amazon.com (AMZN) was also in the top-10 with a gain of 5.19%. AES Corp. (AES) was the worst-performer with a loss of 4.46%, while Qualcomm (QCOM) was the second-worst with a loss of 3.05%.

The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX) up 28.81 points, or 1.29%, and it closed at 2,267.07 on Monday. Dish Network (DISH) was the best-performer in the Nasdaq-100 with a gain of 7.66%. Seagate Technology (STX) followed with a gain of 7.23%. QCOM was its worst-performer.

Crude oil futures ended the session lower by nearly a dollar on Monday at $78.70 a barrel, while gold closed lower by 60 cents at $1,1118.30 an ounce.

Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX)

Toni's Outlook: On Tuesday, watch out in the afternoon for the latest vehicle sales data. Qualcomm is also making headlines and will be active. It just announced that it will be raising its dividend by 12% and it will buy back $3 worth of shares.

In the overall indices, we have been following a larger trading range on a daily time frame that is now looking to extend into a weekly one as well. The continued pull of the indices into the upper end of the year-to-date range will signal a bias in favor of a correction through time in form of an extended trading range, whereas a pull back to the lower end of the year-to-date range would have make it easier for the markets to develop a continuation pattern for another pull lower. Currently, however, the "V" type of bottom experienced in recent weeks has left more options open for longer-term price development.

Current FX Options Symbols and Free Webinar Registration Link

noreply@blogger.com (Toni Hansen) — Sat, 27 Feb 2010 01:45:00 +0000

The following spreadsheet displays the most recent FX options currently available. Feel free to visit www.fxoptions.com to get the latest on FX Options and to obtain free quotes.

I will be teaching a class on Market Timing for FX Options on Tuesday, March 2nd at 4:30 ET. To register, go to https://ise.webex.com/ise/onstage/g.php?t=a&d=717056900.

Economic Reports and Earnings Events Next Week

noreply@blogger.com (Toni Hansen) — Sat, 27 Feb 2010 01:18:00 +0000

Economic Reports and Earnings Events Next Week

Brought to you by Toni Hansen
http://www.tonihansen.com

Economic Reports and Events

Domestic:
Eastern Time Zone (GMT -5:00) (New York, Toronto)

Mar 1 8:30 AM Personal Income Jan
Mar 1 8:30 AM Personal Spending Jan
Mar 1 8:30 AM Personal Income and Consumption Prices - Core Jan
Mar 1 10:00 AM Construction Spending Jan
Mar 1 10:00 AM ISM Index Feb

Mar 2 2:00 PM Auto Sales Feb
Mar 2 2:00 PM Truck Sales Feb

Mar 3 7:30 AM Challenger Job Cuts YoY Feb
Mar 3 8:15 AM ADP Employment Change Feb
Mar 3 10:00 AM ISM Services Feb
Mar 3 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 2/26
Mar 3 2:00 PM Fed's Beige Book Mar

Mar 4 8:30 AM Initial Claims 02/27
Mar 4 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 02/20
Mar 4 8:30 AM Productivity-Rev. Q4
Mar 4 8:30 AM Unit Labor Costs Q4
Mar 4 10:00 AM Factory Orders Jan
Mar 4 10:00 AM Pending Home Sales Jan

Mar 5 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate Feb
Mar 5 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Feb
Mar 5 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Feb
Mar 5 8:30 AM Average Workweek Feb
Mar 5 3:00 PM Consumer Credit Jan

Domestic and Foreign:
Eastern Time Zone (GMT -5:00) (New York, Toronto)

Feb 28 17:30 AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing
Feb 28 19:30 AUD Current Account Balance Q4
Feb 28 19:30 AUD Company Operating Profit Q4

Mar 01 03:55 EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing FEB
Mar 01 04:00 EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing FEB
Mar 01 04:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals JAN
Mar 01 04:30 GBP Net Consumer Credit JAN
Mar 01 05:00 EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate JAN ***
Mar 01 08:30 CAD Quarterly Gross Domestic Product Annualized Q4 ***
Mar 01 08:30 CAD Gross Domestic Product DEC
Mar 01 08:30 USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator JAN
Mar 01 08:30 USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core JAN
Mar 01 10:00 USD ISM Manufacturing FEB
Mar 01 18:30 JPY Jobless Rate JAN ***
Mar 01 18:30 JPY Job-to-Applicant Ratio JAN
Mar 01 19:30 AUD Retail Sales JAN
Mar 01 22:30 AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision ***

Mar 02 01:45 CHF Gross Domestic Product Q4 ***
Mar 02 05:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate FEB
Mar 02 09:00 CAD Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision ***
Mar 02 18:30 AUD AiG Performance of Service Index FEB
Mar 02 19:01 GBP Nationwide Consumer Confidence FEB
Mar 02 19:30 AUD Gross Domestic Product Q4 ***

Mar 03 03:55 EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services FEB
Mar 03 03:55 EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services FEB
Mar 03 03:55 EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite FEB
Mar 03 07:00 EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales JAN
Mar 03 19:00 GBP Bank of England Asset Purchase Target ***
Mar 03 19:30 AUD Trade Balance JAN
Mar 03 19:45 EUR European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision ***

Mar 04 05:00 EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product Q4 ***
Mar 04 05:00 EUR Euro-Zone Gross Fixed Capital
Mar 04 05:00 EUR Euro-Zone Household Consumption Q4
Mar 04 07:00 GBP Bank of England Interest Rate Decision ***
Mar 04 EUR German Retail Sales JAN

Mar 05 08:30 USD Change in Non-Farm Payrolls FEB ***
Mar 05 08:30 USD Unemployment Rate FEB ***
Mar 05 08:30 USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls FEB
Mar 05 08:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings FEB
Mar 05 08:30 USD Average Weekly Hours FEB
Mar 05 08:30 USD Consumer Credit JAN

*** Highly influential

Notice: The Bastiat Group, Inc. has attempted to verify the information contained in this calendar, however, any aspect of such info may change without notice. Foreign economic reports included in this list are only those deemed "medium to high impact".

Key Earnings Announcements:

Monday, March 1, 2010
Before: AMAG, AWI, BPZ (?), CEDC, CCO (?), XTEX, DISH, SATS, EIX, EP, EPB, GTXI (?), IART, IPI, ISIS, ME, OSG, PWRD, PSA, KGS, KWK, RGNC, RDC, SGMS, SNDA, BID, SUG, NGLS, TWGP, USU, WCRX
During: -
After: ABM, AMCN, AMSF, CKEC, DL, FIX, DBRN, HVT, HYC, MWE, MBI, MDR, MR, NTRI, QCOR, SQNM (?), SYKE, NCTY (?), TNS, WRC

Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Before: ALY, ARQL, AZO, WEL, BYD, BPI, CRIC (?), CSR, CTB, CRYP, DPZ, FDP, HERO, ISPH (?), RIGL (?), SSW (?), SPLS, TECD, UNFI
During: -
After: ALJ, APSG, ARCL, BGFV, BTUI, CWST, NKBP (?), CHDN, EGLE, HOV, INAP, IPCS (?), JAKK, KCP, MATK, PDLI, RHB, URS, PAY, VISN

Wednesday, March 3, 2010
Before: ARD (?), BIG, BJ, BWS, CSIQ, CRZO (?), CMED, COST, DIN, JOYG, LINC, MFB, NNI, NZ, PEI (?), POZN, RIMG
During: -
After: JOBS (?), AIQ (?), AIMC, ARII, CBEY, CRA, CWTR, CCIX, CMTL, CPRT (?), CCRN, DAR, DPM, DIVX, DDMX, DAVE, FNSR, FL, FTEK, HMIN, JAZZ, LHCG, NGS, PETM, SIGM, SINA, SUNH, TTWO, CLUB (?), TCAP (?), VM (?), VOLC, WCAA, AUY

Thursday, March 4, 2010
Before: ECOL. ARIA (?), AACC (?), ATPG (?), FLY, BRLI, CNQ (?), CIEN, CNSL, CRTX, DLM, ELMG (?), FSYS, GCO (?), GRB, GPX (?), HEES, HDIX (?), MEI, MITI, MDS (?), TYPE, NAFC, BABY, ORN, OSTK (?), PPCO, PRFT, RBA, GASS (?), STP, SXCI, TK, RMIX (?), USPH, URBN, WW (?), WEN, WNR
During: -
After: AHS, ARST, ATHN, COO, DEPO, DXCM (?), DDS (?), BOOM, EBS, ERII, EQY, EXEL (?), GOK (?), GA, GMXR (?), IDSY (?), INXI (?), MMLP (?), MRVL, MDSO, MENT, MIDD (?), MOVE, NCMI (?), PCTI, SONE, SGK (?), SLW, SPWRA (?), TIE (?), UDRL

Friday, March 5, 2010
Before: AYR, ALC, CACH, SOLF
During: -
After: LMIA (?)

Note: All economic numbers and earnings reports are in line with those compiled by Briefing.com. Occasionally changes will occur that are made after the posting of this column and some companies have not confirmed their time, so always double check when taking positions overnight during earnings season! (?) = Not yet confirmed at the time the list was compiled.

© 2010 Toni Hansen. All Rights Reserved.

Market Whip-Saws, Correcting Through Time

noreply@blogger.com (Toni Hansen) — Fri, 26 Feb 2010 07:01:00 +0000

Market Whip-Saws, Correcting Through Time

(Note: Unless otherwise stated, the index action described below relates to the EMini futures contracts for the respective indices. Actual index action may differ slightly in terms of pattern formation, although the market bias will remain the same.)

Good day! The market experienced strong action in both directions on Thursday. As I posted in yesterday's column, the index futures were forming a 60-minute Avalanche™ pattern heading into Thursday's opening bell. This it the first continuation pattern to kick off a downtrend with the first lower high, followed by the break lower that leads to the first lower low. This setup followed through with a breakdown in 22:00 pm ET into midnight on Thursday. It then continued when a premarket base from midnight into the early-morning economic data at 8:30 am ET was followed by even stronger selling into the opening bell.

On Thursday the Labor Department announced that initial jobless claims rose by 22,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 496,000. Claims were expected to have fallen to 460,000. The four-week average rose 6,000 to 473,750. The durable goods orders were also disappointing. Even though durable-goods orders were up 3% in January, the increase was due to a sharp increase in transportation orders. Excluding these, orders were down 0.6%.

Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI)

The market has been struggling over the past week as it reacts to resistance on the daily time frame, so the dismal news rocked the bulls... at least temporarily. The extreme premarket selloff led to a substantially larger-than-average gap in the indices. Such gaps have a very difficult time following through in the direction of the gap on the same day of the gap when they occur in the indices. Thursday's session began with the indices hitting equal move support on the 15 minute time frame as compared to the drop earlier in the week. This, along with the gap size, helped the market curtail further selling despite a premature continuation attempt at the 5 minute 20 sma intraday at 11:00 am ET.

The late-morning continuation attempt on the downside resulted in gradual selling back into the zone of the morning lows that helped shift the momentum on a 5 minute time frame. The indices continued to change pace into the 12:00 ET correction period. The market rose back to the highs of the intraday range and then hugged that resistance level into the early afternoon.

Volume was at its lightest levels of the day as the market reacted to the upper trend channel intraday. This supported a bias in favor of a break higher out of the trading range. This breakout triggered shortly after 13:30 ET and led to a sharp continuation higher into the 5 minute 200 sma, which hit at the 14:00 ET correction period. A brief correction followed before the indices continued higher into the closing bell coming out of the 15:00 ET correction period. The base at highs from 14:00-15:00 was relatively brief compared to the rally into 14:00 ET, so the follow-through into the close was more gradual, albeit steady. The gap zone closed by the end of the day.

S&P 500 ($SPX)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) ended the session on Thursday at 10,321.03 with a loss of 53.13 points, or 0.51%. Only a handful of Dow components posted a gain. The top three included Alcoa (AA) (+1.91%), Bank of America (BAC) (+1.35%). and WalMart (WMT) (+0.43%). The top losers were Coca-Cola (KO) (-3.70%), DuPont (DD) (-1.35%), and Merck (MRK) (-0.97%). KO's losses came after the company announced plans to buy the majority of its largest bottling company, Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE). CCE was the S&P 500's best-performer. It rose 32.85%.

The S&P 500 ($SPX) fell 2.30 points, or 0.21%, and closed at 1,105.24. The second-best performer was Dr. Pepper Snapple Group (DPS) (+11.10%). Express Scripts (ESRX) (+8.52%) and Iron Mountain (IRM) (+7.08) were also top leaders. Among the losers were Monsanto (MON) (-3.86%), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) (-3.86%), and KO.

The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX) fell 1.68 points. or 0.08%, and it closed at 2,234.22 on Thursday. ESRX was the Nasdaq-100's best-performer. Liberty Media (LINTA) followed with a gain of 8.20%. Flextronics (FLEX) (-2.38%) was the worst-performer, followed by Yahoo (YHOO) (-2.25%).

In other markets, crude oil futures ended the session lower by $1.83 a barrel at $78.17 in New York, while gold rose to $1,108.50 an ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index slipped from 80.915 to 80.86.

Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX)

I was expecting the market to correct longer, at least through time, heading into the weekend as a continued reaction off last week's daily resistance. The rally into Thursday's close leaves the market attempting to change momentum to allow for further upside, but this is still going to be a difficult task to accomplish without another pullback or 30 minute base. The rounded highs afterhours on Thursday could easily generate such a pullback into Friday morning, because this is another attempt to change momentum. This time it's a reaction to price resistance. As a result, the 60-minute bias remains choppy and bearish.

Bernanke Reassures Investors

noreply@blogger.com (Toni Hansen) — Thu, 25 Feb 2010 06:46:00 +0000

Bernanke Reassures Investors

(Note: Unless otherwise stated, the index action described below relates to the EMini futures contracts for the respective indices. Actual index action may differ slightly in terms of pattern formation, although the market bias will remain the same.)

Good day! On Tuesday the market fell apart following a particularly disappointing consumer confidence report that coincided with strong daily price resistance in the indices. All three of the major indices dropped off monthly highs and into their 10 day simple moving averages in a day and a half. This left them extended on the downside on a 15 minute time frame Tuesday afternoon, but still open for a longer correction on the daily charts with further reaction to the larger time frame resistance.

On Wednesday, however, the indices bounced back strongly in a move that was largely attributed to reassurance from Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke that, as a result of high unemployment and continued weakness in the overall economy, the federal reserve would likely leave rates low for an extended period of time. Bernanke is slated to repeat his statement before the Senate on Thursday.

This does not break the market out of its larger corrective phase, however, since that correction can still continue at a slower overall pace with greater day-to-day price overlap. This remains very likely. Data to watch this week that may sway intraday action will be the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index on the 26th and the weekly jobless claims numbers on the 25th.

Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI)

The initial gap higher into Wednesday's opening bell was followed by continued upside in the first half hour of trade and then a rapid turn lower into the 10:15 ET correction period. The selling did not last long, however, and the indices held price and moving average support at the same time as the correction period. Slowing momentum into this support also helped the indices turn higher once again into the second half of the morning. This rally continued into the 10:45 ET correction period.

The market held the upper end of the day's trading range well into the afternoon, but was unable to form a decent continuation pattern. The momentum shifted within the mid-day range to favor a break lower into the 14:00 ET correction period. The indices sold off strongly for about half an hour, but still managed to recover most of the afternoon pullback before the closing bell.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) ended the session on Wednesday at 10,373.16 with a gain of 91.75 points. Out of the Dow's 30 index components only two stocks posted a loss. They were Alcoa (AA) (-0.91%) and Kraft (KFT) (-0.27%). The financials were the biggest gainer in the Dow. Bank of America (BAC) was the strongest with a gain of +2.45%, while J.P. Morgan (JPM) followed with a gain of 2.43%. Home Depot (HD) was the third-best Dow performer with a gain of 1.98%.

S&P 500 ($SPX)

The S&P 500 ($SPX) rose 10.64 points and closed at 1,105.24. Autodesk Inc. (ADSK) was the best-performer in the S&P 500 with a gain of 8.69% following earnings. Carnival Corp. (CCL) followed with a gain of 6.33%. As a whole, the financials, semiconductors, and consumer discretionary stocks led the upside. Block H.& R (HRB) was the worst-performer following news that it would not meet its fiscal-year guidance this year.

The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX) rose 22.46 points and it closed at 2,235.90 on Wednesday. ADSK was also the Nasdaq-100's best-performer. It was followed by a gain of 3.92% in Altera (ALTR) and 3.32% in Adobe (ADBE). Garmin (GRMN) was the worst-performer with a loss of 5.81%.
In other markets, crude oil futures ended the session higher by $1.14 a barrel to $80.00 in New York, while gold fell $6 to $1,097.20 an ounce.

Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX)

Wednesday's gains were made despite highly disappointing new-home sales data. Sales of new homes in January fell to a record low, according to the Commerce Department. The seasonally adjusted rate came in at 11.2% lower than December and 6.1% lower year-over-year. The rate was a whopping 16.5% below expectations and the median time for a sale rose to an all-time high of 14.2 months. It should be noted that the first-time home-buyers tax credit has been extended to April, but did not appear to help sales. The first-time home-buyer credit is $8,000, while existing home owners can obtain a credit up to $6,500. Foreclosures remain a huge burden and are highest in areas that saw the fastest rate of growth at the end of the housing bubble three years ago.

Despite Wednesday's overall gains in the market, the index futures turned lower once again following the closing bell. This is in line with the larger 60-minute bias, which can be seen more clearly on all-sessions charts of the index futures, as opposed to just the intraday charts shown here. The indices broke lower out of the daily uptrend channel on Tuesday and the correction off Tuesday's lows was more gradual and to a lesser degree than then previous selloff. This has created the start of a larger 60-minute Avalanche™ on the all-sessions time frames which take into account the afterhours and premarket data. Patterns that form on these charts are just as strong as those that form on the intraday charts, which display data from 9:30 am ET to 16:00 ET. I am expecting the larger 60-minute correction off Monday's highs to continue into the weekend. Use added caution when taking setups on the long side overnight.

Market Correction Continues Following Disappointing Consumer Confidence Report

noreply@blogger.com (Toni Hansen) — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 06:29:00 +0000

Market Correction Continues Following Disappointing Consumer Confidence Report

(Note: Unless otherwise stated, the index action described below relates to the EMini futures contracts for the respective indices. Actual index action may differ slightly in terms of pattern formation, although the market bias will remain the same.)

Good day! Tuesday's session started on a weak note as it followed through on the previous afternoon's bias. The indices attempted to still hold onto last week's gains, however, and pulled higher out of the open. The move was not enough to push through 5 minute resistance at the 5 minute 20 sma though, and when the 10:00 am ET consumer confidence data was released, so were the floodgates. The market plummeted following the report of an unexpected drop in consumer confidence. The Conference Board's index on consumer confidence fell from 55.9 in January to 46 this month. Analysts had expected a slight move higher.

The data confirmed the larger 60-minute corrective bias we were tracking and assured market participants that they were going to be in for a very weak day of trade. Over the past several days we have been following the shifting momentum on the upside on the 60-minute time frame. Because the indices broke the lower end of the trend channel so quickly, it would have been extremely unlikely that the market would be able to make a recovery in the same day of the breakdown. Volume confirmed the larger price correction.

Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI)

The initial support on the morning selloff came at 10:15 am Et, but the indices didn't show a price reaction until 10:30 ET. The market fell into a trading range along the morning lows into noon. This trading range took the form of two waves of correction off the lows, with volume declining throughout. This is a typical continuation pattern for a strong trend move and the indices triggered a secondary short into noon. Due to the extreme morning downside, however, the continuation was not as strong. The Dow and S&Ps stepped down once again from 13:30 ET into the 14:00 ET correction period. At this point the Dow and S&Ps struck price support at their 15 minute 200 period sma. The market bounced slightly from the 14:00 to 15:15 ET zone, but pulled back again ahead of the close.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) ended the session on Tuesday at 10,282.41 with a loss of 100.97 points, or 0.97%. Home Depot (HD) (+1.42%), Kraft (KFT) (+0.62%), and McDonalds (MCD) (+0.15%) were the only gainers in the Dow Jones Ind. Ave. HD's gains came on the heels of a better-than-expected earnings report and increase in dividends. Alcoa (AA) (-2.66%), American Express (AXP) (-2.57%), and J.P. Morgan (JPM) (-2.37%) were the Dow's biggest loser.

S&P 500 ($SPX)

The S&P 500 ($SPX) fell 1.16 points, or 0.10%, and closed at 1,108.01. Only 59 of the S&P 500 index components posted a gain. Ford (F) was the second-best performer with a gain of 3.48%, while Whole Foods (WFMI) came in fifth with a gain of 2.80%. First Solar (FSLR) was in the bottom once again, falling another 6.46%. The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX) fell 1.84 points, or 0.08%, and it closed at 2,242.03 on Monday. In other markets, crude oil futures fell $1.45 to $78.86 a barrel, while fold settled down $9.90 at $1,103.20 an ounce.

Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX)

Remember: this week is going to be a very busy one, not only from an earnings standpoint, but from an economic one also. For this week's complete list of economic and earnings reports, check out the list at the end of this column or go to http://www.tonihansen.com/blog. The market is at decent 15 minute support right now, but the bias remains in favor of a longer correction off last week's highs on the daily time frame. Check out yesterday's column for more detail on the current, larger market outlook.

Market Struggles Following 4-Day Rally

noreply@blogger.com (Toni Hansen) — Tue, 23 Feb 2010 02:01:00 +0000

Market Struggles Following 4-Day Rally

(Note: Unless otherwise stated, the index action described below relates to the EMini futures contracts for the respective indices. Actual index action may differ slightly in terms of pattern formation, although the market bias will remain the same.)

Good day! The market had a strong performance over the course of the shortened holiday trading week last week, but started to loose steam as the week wound to a close. The upside momentum of the trend slowed, increasing the probability for a stronger correction off the daily resistance from the 50-day simple moving averages in the major indices and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level that hit at the same time.

The market attempted to hold onto the gains into the early morning hours on Monday, but the pace continued to shift in favor of the bears. A rapid flush lower at 3:00 am ET into the 4:00 am ET correction period took over three times as long to recover. They eventually established a slightly higher high into 8:00 am ET. but this merely served as a trap since the slower uptrend channel continued to hold. The indices pulled back off premarket highs to hug the lower trend line from that morning channel between 8:00 to 9:30 am ET before breaking sharply lower into the opening bell.

Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI)

The strongest momentum intraday was the rapid drop which took place coming out of that gradual premarket climb. This was an excellent example of how a shift in momentum can create a rapid reversal pattern. The market did find support at 10:00 am ET when the Dow struck its 5 minute 200 sma. The market bounced rather quickly back to the mid-range level of the breakdown, but "V" bottoms typically generate a trading range, as opposed to decent continuations of a previous trend. It was no surprise that this was the case for the indices mid-day on Monday as well. I will come back to this concept when looking at the daily charts at the end of this column.

The correction off lows held the 5 minute 20 sma in the Nasdaq into the 10:45 am ET correction period and the rest of the market also held that zone. The late-morning pullback into the zone of the day's lows was more gradual than the initial selloff. The Dow's 5 minute 200 sma held a second time at the 11:15 ET correction period and the market narrowed its range, falling into choppy trade mid-day. Volume dropped off at this time and remained light until the final 20 minutes of trade.

The indices crept higher in the afternoon, but did not attempt to break the morning's highs. The momentum slowed even further on the buying after 14:00 ET and the indices broke lower into the final 40 minutes of trade. The uptrend channel broke coming out of the 15:30 ET correction period and the indices fell sharply back to the zone of the morning's lows by the end of the regular trading session.

S&P 500 ($SPX)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) ended the session on Monday at 10,383.38 with a loss of 18.97 points, or 0.18%. 9 of the Dow's 30 index components posted a gain. The day's leaders in the Dow were the financials following Bank of America's (BAC) settlement with the Securities and Exchange Commission Monday morning. BAC ended the session higher by 2.08%, followed closely by a 2.05% gain in J.P. Morgan & Chase (JPM). WalMart (WMT) came in at a distant third with a gain of 0.64%, while Home Depot (HD) rose 0.60%. Energy shares were amongst the worst-performers for the session. Chevron Corp. (CVX) fell 1.47%. Exxon Mobil (XOM) fell 0.71%. Other top losers included 2M (MMM) (-1.03%) and Merck (MRK) (0.99%).

The S&P 500 ($SPX) fell 1.16 points, or 0.10%, and closed at 1,108.01. One of the S&P 500's top gainers was once again Smith Intl. (SII) following the announcement that its rival Schlumberger (SLB) would purchase the company for $11 billion. Other top performers included health insurers, such as Humana (HUM) (+5.56%) and United Health (UNH) (+3.57%). Medicare's proposal to raise payments to U.S. insurers next year was cited as the cause for these gains. While SII was the S&P 500's second best performer (+8.83%), SLB was the fourth worst (-3.65%). H&R Block (HRB) was the worst-performer overall though, with a loss of 4.55%.

Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX)

The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX) fell 1.84 points, or 0.08%, and it closed at 2,242.03 on Monday. Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA) was the Nasdaq-100's best-performing. It rose 4.28% and was followed by a 3.56% gain in Garmin (GRMN). First Solar (FSLR) continued to come under pressure after disappointing last week and was the Nasdaq-100's worst-performer with a loss of 2.51%.

Crude oil futures rose once again on Monday to close slightly higher at $80.16 a barrel, while gold closed down $9 at $1,113.10 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar index fell slightly from 80.720 on Friday to 80.615. So far this year, the dollar is up 5.25% against the euro and 4.35% against the British pound, but down 2.11% against the yen.

Remember: this week is going to be a very busy one, not only from an earnings standpoint, but from an economic one also. There is a slew of economic data due out this week, both domestically and overseas. In the U.S., a few to watch out for will be home sales, consumer confidence, and the U.S.'s fourth quarter growth rate. For this week's complete list of economic and earnings reports, check out the list at the end of this column or go to http://www.tonihansen.com/blog.

Monday's light volume is typical for a corrective move following a strong rally. It tends to indicate that most market participants are moving towards the sidelines without a strong short-term bias. The rounded highs will make it easier for the market to continue to correct off this resistance zone into Tuesday. Because the rally on the daily time frame as created the appearance of a "V" bottom in recent weeks, however, the larger price bias for the remainder of the month is a longer trading range. This range should also manifest itself on a weekly chart.

The zone of January's highs will serve as strong price resistance. If the indices attempt a higher high, expect it to break only slightly. This would increase the odds of an even larger weekly correction off highs. On the other hand, if the market returns to that zone, but falls shy of the absolute prior high, a longer range can more easily form that can contain a shift in momentum that would favor a break higher again later this year.

There are a number of scenarios for trading range resolution at the very beginning of a range. Biases become more clear as the range develops based upon momentum and which levels of support or resistance end up holding the best, such as the above discussion on an attempted retest of highs.

Market Closes Higher Following 4-Day Rally

noreply@blogger.com (Toni Hansen) — Mon, 22 Feb 2010 08:02:00 +0000

Good day! Despite a hesitant start to the session following Thursday's late-afternoon announcement by the U.S. Federal Reserve that they were raising the discount rate on emergency bank loans by 0.25%, the market managed to recover intraday on Friday to end the shortened trading week with a clean sweep of gains. The market did struggle a great deal more than in any other session throughout the week though. The downside gap into Friday's opening bell was followed by a continuation lower out of the 9:45 ET correction period that took all three of the major indices to new lows on the day. This also took the Nasdaq and S&P 500 through the 15 minute 20 sma that has held the uptrend all week.

Over the past three sessions, despite the gains, the pace of the buying has slowed as compared to the initial move off the previous Friday's lows. The market has been threatening a larger pullback intraday for the last two sessions, but has reacted to the resistance with a slowdown in the buying pressure as opposed to a larger price correction. Such a correction, however, has become increasingly likely as a result of the intraday momentum shift heading into next week.

Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI)

At 10:00 am ET on Friday, the morning selloff found support from Thursday's mid-day trading range. This support held extremely well. The market gained momentum once again on the recovery, but stalled at 10:30 ET at the 5 minute 20 sma to help solidify that change in pace. The indices broke higher at the 11:15 ET correction period and were soon pushing through Thursday's highs. An equal move on the 5 minute time frame as compared to the 10:00 am ET rally hit at 11:30 ET. This resistance is similar to what we saw hit on Wednesday in the indices on a 15 minute time frame. Instead of reacting swiftly with a price pullback, the pace of the buying merely slowed, but the indices managed to continue to create a series of slightly higher highs.

The shift in momentum mid-day on Friday created a reversal strategy into the afternoon. It started off slowly, but picked up momentum coming out of the 13:00 ET correction period. The was particularly clear-cut in the Nasdaq Composite. Support hit at the 14:00 ET correction period, which led to a bear flag into the 5 minute 20 sma and continued downside into the 15:00 ET correction period. Price support hit once again around 15:30 ET. The indices had been back into testing negative territory at that point, but a pop into the close allowed the market to manage its 4th daily gain in the row.

S&P 500 ($SPX)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) ended the session on Friday at 10,402.35 with a gain of 9.45 points, or 0.09%. Reflecting the mixed bias on the day, the gainers and loses were very closely matched with the gainers taking the lead only by a hair. The top three performers on Friday were Pfizer (PFE) (+1.47%), DuPont (DD) (+1.22%), and Boeing (BA) (+1.11%). The worst-performers in the Dow on Friday were J.P. Morgan (JPM) (-0.94%), Microsoft (MSFT) (-0.69%), and Alcoa (AA) (-0.59%). The Dow ended the week higher by 3%.

The S&P 500 ($SPX) rose 2.42 points, or 0.22%, and closed at 1,109.17. Smith Intl. (SII) (+13.04%) was the best-performer in the S&P 500 on Friday, followed by Intuit (INTU) (+7.92%) and Penney J.C. (JCP) (+6.55%). First Solar (FSLR) was the biggest loser, falling 8.15% and dragging down the rest of the solar stocks as well. Apollo (APOL) (-7.37%) and Dell (DELL) (-6.65%) were also hard-hit. The S&P 500 ended the week higher by 3.1%.

Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX)

The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX) rose 2.16 points, or 0.10%, and it closed at 2,243.87 on Friday. INTU was the Nasdaq-100's best-performer. TEVA Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) was second with a gain of 3.02%. eBAY (EBAY) was third with a gain of 2.54%. FSLR, APOL and DELL were the Nasdaq-100's biggest losers. The weekly gain in the Nasdaq came in at +2.8%.

This week is going to be a very busy one, not only from an earnings standpoint, but from an economic one also. There is a slew of economic data due out this week, both domestically and overseas. In the U.S., a few to watch out for will be home sales, consumer confidence, and the U.S.'s fourth quarter growth rate.

Special Bookstore Offer - 50% off my course and book

noreply@blogger.com (Toni Hansen) — Mon, 22 Feb 2010 05:52:00 +0000

Hi gang,

Trader's Library is offering a special on my book and a Traders Forum class I gave on target prediction at http://www.invest-store.com/tradingfrommainstreet/item.php?7635903.

All my best,
Toni

Market Rally Continues into Thursday, but Faces Challenges on Friday

noreply@blogger.com (Toni Hansen) — Fri, 19 Feb 2010 00:29:00 +0000

Market Rally Continues into Thursday, but Faces Challenges on Friday

(Note: Unless otherwise stated, the index action described below relates to the EMini futures contracts for the respective indices. Actual index action may differ slightly in terms of pattern formation, although the market bias will remain the same.)

Good day! Despite multi-day gains that left the indices heading into daily resistance on Wednesday, the market still continued to push higher into Thursday's session with decent morning gains and a strong, late-day breakout.

The early-morning news on Thursday was mixed. Earnings data overall was positive, but the economic data was not. First-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 31,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 473,000. There have only been two weeks so far this year that initial jobless claims have NOT risen. Last week's increase was much larger than had been expected.

In other news, inflation is on the rise. Core producer prices (which exclude food and energy goods) rose 0.3% last month and 1% year-over-year. The overall producer price index rose 1.4% last month, greater than the 0.9% gain economists had been expecting. It is up 4.6% year-over-year. The consumer price index is due out on Friday. This is less volatile than the PPI and is affected more by labor costs than commodity prices. It is expected to rise 0.3% with the core CPI rising 0.1% for January.

Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI)

The index futures had been trading higher into the morning's data after pivoting off early morning lows around 3:00 am ET. The economic data was followed by an immediate selloff that returned the futures to the 3:00 am ET levels. This support did hold, however, and the indices rolled over off lows into 9:00 am ET and worked their way higher once again into the opening bell. The recovery was not enough to create a gap higher for the third day in a row though.

The premarket highs held as resistance into the open in the S&Ps and Dow, but the Nasdaq showed relative weakness in the morning. A continuation took place shortly thereafter that took the S&Ps and Dow through earlier highs, but the weaker Nasdaq got stuck at its own premarket highs. This zone hit at the same time as the indices were pushing into the 10:15 ET correction period. The pace of the buying had shifted by that time, however, and the correction period held extremely well, along with the Nasdaq's resistance. The indices pulled back into 10:30 ET, but the 15 minute 20 sma that has been holding the trend in recent days continued to serve as strong support despite the larger trend extension.

The mid-day economic data was a bit more favorable than the morning's, but had little initial impact. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, mid-Atlantic manufacturers reported a better-than-expected improvement in new orders. The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators posted another monthly gain of 0.3%, however, this was just under the 0.4% anticipated.

The indices spent most of the session in a narrow trading range skirting the 15 minute 20 sma in the indices. Between 13:30 and 14:30 ET, however, that range started to break higher. It gained momentum at 14:15 ET, shooting through the day's highs. That momentum did not last long though. The buying continued into the 15:00 ET correction period, but the pace of the buying slowed dramatically.

When equal move resistance hit on the 15 minute time frame at 15:00 ET it was easy for the market to pause. The indices did attempt a new high going into the final 15 minutes of trade, but the development was not favorable to a strong continuation. There was only one low in the correction on the 2 minute charts after 15:00 ET, so it made it easy for the market to pull back off the second high into the close.

S&P 500 ($SPX)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) ended the session on Thursday at 10,392.90 with a gain of 83.66 points, or 0.81%. Travelers Cos. (TRV) was the Dow's best-performer with a gain of 1.91%. It was followed by a 1.73% gain in Boeing (BA), a 1.48% gain in DuPont (DD), and a 1.40% gain in Bank of America (BAC). WalMart (WMT) was the Dow's main drag, falling 1.09%. Despite posting a 22% gain in fourth-quarter profit, there was concern regarding its first-quarter guidance and declining sales in stores that have been open for more than a year. Telecoms and drug makers were also lagging. AT&T (T) shares fell 0.63%, while Verizon (VZ) gained only 0.03%. Merck (MRK) fell 0.13%, while Pfizer (PFE) rose only 0.34%.

The S&P 500 ($SPX) rose 7.24 points, or 0.66%, and closed at 1,106.75. Energy, metals, and industrial stocks were among the S&P's best gainers. Priceline (PCLN), however, was the S&P 500's top-performer. It rose 9.43% after reporting a fourth-quarter profit that was more than double previous numbers. Revenue also beat expectations and it indicated a strong first-quarter guidance. Among the losers were Nvidia (NVDA) (-6.56%), O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) (-5.96%), Wynn Resorts (WYNN) (-3.73%), and Applied Materials (AMAT) (-2.39%).

Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX)

The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX) rose 15.42 points, or 0.69%, and it closed at 2,241.71 on Thursday. PCLN was also the Nasdaq-100's best-performer. It was followed by a 4.43% gain in Expedia (EXPE). NVDA, ORLY, WYNN, and AMAT were the Nasdaq-100's biggest losers. Dell (DELL) was a big loser afterhours following earnings that beat by a penny, but disappointed on revenue.

In other markets, crude oil futures were up $1.72 a barrel from $77.33 on Wednesday to $79.06 a barrel on Thursday. Gold fell from $1,120.10 an ounce on Wednesday to $1118.70 an ounce.

The index futures fell sharply afterhours on Thursday. The slightly higher high in the indices on the 5 minute time frame created a 2T reversal pattern as a short off that high, but the real kicker was news that the U.S. Federal Reserve moved to raise tits discount rate (the rate it charges banks for short-term, emergency loans) by a quarter of a percentage point beginning Friday. The news itself was not completely unexpected, but it came on the heels of a strong multi-day upswing that ended the day on Thursday with a reversal pattern, so the news amplified the technical correction in afterhours trade. It will also likely make Friday's session a weak, yet volatile one. Use added caution intraday. The week-to-date highs should hold, so Friday's action will depend upon how the indices react to initial 15 minute support. If they round off at lows or bounce quickly, then a trading range is most likely. If they fall, creating a narrower, choppy range along support, then another wave of selling become more probable on a 15 minute time frame.

Economic Reports and Earnings Events Next Week

noreply@blogger.com (Toni Hansen) — Thu, 18 Feb 2010 19:00:00 +0000

Economic Reports and Earnings Events Next Week
Brought to you by Toni Hansen
http://www.tonihansen.com/

Economic Reports and Events Next Week

Domestic:
Eastern Time Zone (GMT -5:00) (New York, Toronto)

Feb 23 9:00 AM Case-Shiller 20-city Index Dec
Feb 23 10:00 AM Consumer Confidence Feb

Feb 24 10:00 AM New Home Sales Jan
Feb 24 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 2/19

Feb 25 8:30 AM Initial Claims 02/20
Feb 25 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 02/13
Feb 25 8:30 AM Durable Orders Jan
Feb 25 10:00 AM FHFA Housing Price Index Dec

Feb 26 8:30 AM GDP - Second Estimate Q4
Feb 26 8:30 AM GDP Deflator - Second Estimate Q4
Feb 26 9:45 AM Chicago PMI Feb
Feb 26 9:55 AM U Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Final Feb
Feb 26 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Jan

Domestic and Foreign:
Eastern Time Zone (GMT -5:00) (New York, Toronto)

Feb 22 18:50 JPY Bank of Japan Meeting Minutes

Feb 23 02:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator JAN
Feb 23 02:45 EUR French Consumer Price Index JAN ***
Feb 23 02:45 EUR French Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonized JAN
Feb 23 02:45 EUR French Consumer Price Index - Ex. Tobacco Index JAN
Feb 23 04:00 EUR German IFO - Expectations FEB
Feb 23 04:00 EUR German IFO - Business Climate FEB
Feb 23 04:00 EUR German IFO - Current Assessment FEB
Feb 23 04:30 GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase JAN
Feb 23 09:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. Home Price Index Q4
Feb 23 10:00 USD Consumer Confidence FEB ***
Feb 23 17:00 USD ABC Consumer Confidence Feb 21
Feb 23 18:50 JPY Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance JAN
Feb 23 18:50 JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total JAN
Feb 23 18:50 JPY Retail Trade JAN
Feb 23 21:00 NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand 2-Year Inflation Expectation Q1 ***

Feb 24 02:00 EUR German Gross Domestic Product Q4 ***
Feb 24 02:00 EUR German Private Consumption Q4
Feb 24 02:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey MAR
Feb 24 10:00 USD New Home Sales JAN
Feb 24 19:30 AUD Private Capital Expenditure Q4
Feb 24 21:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence FEB

Feb 25 02:45 EUR French Producer Prices JAN
Feb 25 03:15 CHF Employment Level Q4
Feb 25 03:55 EUR German Unemployment Change FEB ***
Feb 25 03:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate FEB ***
Feb 25 05:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
Feb 25 08:30 USD Durable Goods Orders JAN ***
Feb 25 08:30 USD Durable Goods Orders ex. Transportation JAN ***
Feb 25 16:45 NZD Trade Balance JAN
Feb 25 16:45 NZD Building Permits JAN
Feb 25 16:45 NZD Imports JAN
Feb 25 16:45 NZD Exports JAN
Feb 25 18:30 JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index FEB ***
Feb 25 18:30 JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index ex. Fresh Food FEB
Feb 25 18:30 JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index ex. Food, Energy FEB
Feb 25 18:30 JPY National Consumer Price Index JAN ***
Feb 25 18:30 JPY National Consumer Price Index ex. Fresh Food JAN
Feb 25 18:30 JPY National Consumer Price Index ex. Food, Energy JAN
Feb 25 18:30 JPY Retail Trade JAN

Feb 26 04:30 GBP Gross Domestic Product Q4 ***
Feb 26 05:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index JAN
Feb 26 05:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core JAN
Feb 26 05:30 CHF KOF Swiss Leading Indicator FEB
Feb 26 07:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index FEB ***
Feb 26 07:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonized FEB ***
Feb 26 07:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Survey FEB
Feb 26 07:30 AUD Private Sector Credit JAN
Feb 26 08:30 CAD Current Account Q4
Feb 26 08:30 USD Gross Domestic Product Q4 Annualized ***
Feb 26 08:30 USD Personal Consumption Q4
Feb 26 08:30 USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index Q4 ***
Feb 26 08:30 USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Q4

*** Highly influential

Notice: The Bastiat Group, Inc. has attempted to verify the information contained in this calendar, however, any aspect of such info may change without notice. Foreign economic reports included in this list are only those deemed "medium to high impact".

Key Earnings Announcements Next Week:

Monday, February 22, 2010
Before: COG, CPB, CEG, CEP, CPIX (?), ENDP, GEO, LECO, LOW, MDAS, OIS, ORBK, PWR, TDS (?), USM (?), VCI, VRX
During: -
After: APEI, BIDZ (?), BRCD, CBI, CBR, CTV, CVA, DRC (?), DTE, DSTI, DCO, ECHO, EXAC, EXR, FST, HMA, HR, HLS, IPCM, MELI, NATL, NDSN, JWN, OKE, OWW, RSH, SM, TTEC, TXRH, NCTY (?), USU (?), XNPT

Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Before: ACOR, AMED, ASTE, BKS, BBG, BPHX, CDI, CRDN, CKP, CAAS (?), CBRL, DAKT, DNR, DSX, EE, SSP, EXPS, FSS, FE (?), GTI, GTXI (?), HSII, HSIC, HD, HRP, HURN, ICON, IDA, IDC, IPGP, ISLE, KNOL, LIZ, M, MVL (?), MHS, MDT, MINI, NM, ODP, HK, RDN, SAFM, SHLD, SRE (?), SAH, JOE, TGT, THC, TNC, UNT, VNO, WAB, WPI, WLK
During: -
After: ARP, ARI, ADSK, AXTI, BAS, BGCP, BMRN, BSCI, CHSI, CENX, NKBP (?), CQB, CPTS, TRAK, DM, DWA, DUF, DY, EDR, EPIQ, XCO, FR, GCA, GTEC, HNSN, HLP, HT, HTZ, IFSIA, ISTA, KALU, LLNW, ONXX, OEH, ORA, OSIP, PZZA, PLLL (?), PGI, PSYS, RADS, RRC, SGK (?), SRSL, STEC, SGY, SHO, VRGY, VOLC (?), WSII, GB, WYNN (?)

Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Before: AER, AFAM, AMT, ACOM (?), AAWW, CFL, LSE (?), CRI (?), GTLS, CHS, CLH, CLWR, CMS (?), COT, DXYN, DLTR, RRD, EV, FSRV, FTR, GRMN, GEL, WOLF, HPT, VTIV, SJM, JAKK (?), JMP, LXP, OHI (?), PRX, PEI (?), PQ, SKS, SJI, SYNO, TFX, TX (?), TJX, TOL, RIG, TA, TSL, UNFI (?), VPHM
During: -
After: TDSC, ADLR (?), ANW, ALNY (?), AEL, AMSG, AVGO, BIO, BBI, BDN, BEXP, CWT, CBOU, TAST, CDCS, CHDN, CIR, CLD (?), CIE (?), CXO, CSGP, DGI, DCI, DRCO, EXM, ESRX, FARO (?), FCH, FGXI (?), FADV (?), FLS, GNK, GMR, ROCK, GLBL, GDP, GVA, GEF, HVT (?), HCN, HEI (?), HLX, IDCC, KNDL, KONG (?), LTD, LAD, MANT, MRX (?), NTES, OMER (?), OMTR (?), PPO, PRA, RA, RWT (?), RJET, CRM, CKH (?), SENO, SCI, SMSI, STNR, RGR (?), JAVA (?), SPN, TS (?), TLGD, TQNT, TRLG, TYL, WRI, WLL

Thursday, February 24, 2010
Before: ACIW, AMAG (?), ABK (?), CMRT, ANSS, WTR, ARCC, ARIA (?), ABG, AACC (?), BRY, BVF, BX (?), BRKR (?), CVC (?), CSE, CTL, CNK, CDE, CCOI, CLR, DT, DLR, DPS, DRQ (?), DYN, EMCI, EME, ESV, EXH, FAF, FIG, FWLT, FTO, GLS, GNA, GLF, HNZ, HOC, H, ITWO (?), ICLR, IFLO (?), IWA (?), IRM, ISIS (?), KDN, KBR, KG (?), KSS, LAMR, LINE, LKQX, MIC, MGA, ME (?), PCS, MPS (?), MYL, NEM, NIHD, NRF, NWPX (?), NRG (?), ZEUS, OMG, OCR, PTIE (?), PKD, PXP, POR, RRI, REV, SWY, SFL (?), SMBL, FIRE, SPW, GASS (?), STXS, SHOO, SMA, TTES, SNAK, THI, TRW, VIT, WTI, WRC (?), ZLC (?)
During: -
After: APSG (?), AGO, ATHN, BARE (?), BVN, CACH (?), CBEY (?), CEC, CNL, CSA, COGT, FIX (?), CPNO, CROX, DECK, CRYS, BAGL (?), ERES, ESL, FLR, GPS, GXDX, GERN (?), GXP, HGSI (?), INSU, TEG, KMR (?), KND (?), LHO, LEAP, LYV, MHK, MCRI, NAVG, NVTL, NOVL, NTLS (?), NUVA, OVTI, ORCC, PSB, RST, SD, SVNT, SBAC, SGMS (?), SIRI (?), BID (?), SURW, SWN, SCMR (?), TIE (?), TWB (?), UHS, UACL (?), YSI, VLCM, WTW, WR, INT

Friday, February 25, 2010
Before: CAS, AYR (?), BIOS, CCC (?), CNP, LNG (?), DRH, FRO (?), FCN, ZINC, IPG, JRCC, MGLN, MCCC, MPR, MSA, MIR, GAS (?), NWN, POM, SUP (?), SUSS, TTI, TREX, WCRX (?)
During: -
After: AES (?)

Note: All economic numbers and earnings reports are in line with those compiled by Briefing.com. Occasionally changes will occur that are made after the posting of this column and some companies have not confirmed their time, so always double check when taking positions overnight during earnings season! (?) = Not yet confirmed at the time the list was compiled.

© 2010 Toni Hansen. All right reserved. http://www.tonihansen.com/

Market Continues to Push Higher

noreply@blogger.com (Toni Hansen) — Thu, 18 Feb 2010 04:03:00 +0000

Market Continues to Push Higher

(Note: Unless otherwise stated, the index action described below relates to the EMini futures contracts for the respective indices. Actual index action may differ slightly in terms of pattern formation, although the market bias will remain the same.)

Good day! The market continued to push higher into Wednesday's session for the third day in which the major indices trended higher while the 15 minute 20 period simple moving average served as intraday support. The index futures had crept higher afterhours on Tuesday and into the early morning hours on Wednesday as well, leaving the indices with another gap up into the opening bell.

The market struggled to hold onto these gains for a second session in a row, but they were not as successful as on Tuesday. The gap extended the market intraday and the indices held the opening price zone and pulled back gradually. This time, however, the 5 minute 20 sma was not enough to help boost the indices to new true new highs on the day like it had on Tuesday and the zone from the initial 15 minute highs held as strong resistance.

Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI)

Even though the indices were higher in the morning, the rally was rather muted given the morning's decent economic data and better-than-expected earnings reports. On the data front, U.S. industrial output rose higher-than-expected in January with gains in each of the major categories tracked by the Federal Reserve. Economists had been expecting a 0.7% advance, but output rose 0.9%, while December's industrial production was revised higher by from 0.6% to 0.7%. Manufacturing in January grew by 1.0%, compared to a decline of 0.1% in December.

U.S. housing starts were also better-than-expected, rising 2.8% in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 591,000 units. This is the highest level it has been in 6 months. December's housing starts were also revised higher from 557,000 units to 575,000 units. Compared to January of last year, housing starts overall are up 21.1%. New building permits, however, fell 4.9% to 621,000 units last month.

The trend placement intraday was a key factor in the indices' early-morning struggle to continue to push higher. The futures market's afterhours and premarket activity extended the trend, leaving it in favor of corrective action intraday and the 15 minute charts were also hitting the zone of equal move resistance from the previous morning's rally.

The attempt at a new high around 10:30 am ET created a 2T™ reversal pattern intraday, shifting the upside momentum to allow for a late-morning price correction. The correction was minor, but helped keep the indices in a larger intraday trading range. The 15 minute 20 sma served as support around 11:30 ET. The indices slowly made their way back to the morning highs from there, but lacked the strength and volume to push through that level of resistance. Instead, the zone held into the final hour of trade.

S&P 500 ($SPX)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) ended the session on Wednesday at 10,309.24 with a gain of 40.43 points, or 0.39%. The top leaders were Bank of America (BAC) (+3.30%), United Technologies (UTX) (+2.20%), Home Depot (HD) (+1.97%), and Hewlett Packard (HPQ) (+1.38%). HPQ was helped out by strong earnings and raised guidance for 2010. Despite the gain in the Dow overall, a third of the Dow's 30 components still lost ground on the day. The biggest losers were American Express (AXP) (-1.44%), Kraft (KFT) (-1.17%), and Alcoa (AA) (-1.02%).

The S&P 500 ($SPX) rose 4.64 points, or 0.42%, and closed at 1,099.51. Whole Foods Market (WFMI) (+12.55%) was the best-performer following earnings. It beat expectations by reporting a 71% rise in fiscal Q1 profit. Deere & Co. (DE) also reported earnings on Wednesday and also beat earnings. It was the S&P 500's fourth-best gainer (+5.02%).

Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX)

The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX) rose 12.10 points, or 0.55%, and it closed at 2,226.29 on Wednesday. Gilead Sciences (GILD) was the best-performer in the Nasdaq-100 (+3.80). Nii Holdings (NIHD), which had been amongst the biggest gainers over the past week, gave back a chunk of that rally to post the largest loss in the Nasdaq-100. It fell 2.44% in normal corrective activity.

In other markets, crude oil futures were up slightly from $77.01 on Tuesday to $77.33 a barrel on Wednesday. Gold rose from $1,119.80 an ounce on Tuesday to $1,120.10 an ounce on Wednesday.

The market rarely manages to trend higher while holding that 15 minute 20 sma I mentioned earlier for more than 2.5-3 days on an intraday time frame before it breaks and puts in a larger correction. The Dow was able to base through that level of support to break it mid-day, but the S&Ps and Nasdaq did not. This means that it is most likely to happen on Thursday, so I'll be using a great deal of added caution on on the upside intraday. A correction off the current daily resistance zone is more likely for Thursday's session.

Market Kicks Off Shortened Trading Week With Best Daily Gains Since Nov.

noreply@blogger.com (Toni Hansen) — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 08:04:00 +0000

Market Kicks Off Shortened Trading Week With Best Daily Gains Since Nov.

(Note: Unless otherwise stated, the index action described below relates to the EMini futures contracts for the respective indices. Actual index action may differ slightly in terms of pattern formation, although the market bias will remain the same.)

Good day! The market rose sharply on Tuesday to kick off the shortened trading week. Concerns eased overseas with the increasing possibility that Greece will not need a bail-out after all, despite a great deal of speculation over the past several weeks. The index futures shot higher out of the 2:00 am ET correction period as overseas markets began the trading day. They did pull back off early morning highs, but were climbing again into the opening bell following news from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York that showed that manufacturing conditions improved. The business conditions index for New York rose from 15.92 in January to 24.91. This was sharply above expectations of a reading of 16.0 this month. Additionally, the National Association of Home Builders reported a growth in U.S. build confidence in February as well, even though overall levels still remained low.

Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI)

By the time the regular session began, the index futures were back at premarket highs and they gapped strongly to the upside. The move, however, left the indices exhausted in the short term. Nevertheless, it confirmed the intraday bias in favor of the bulls that we has seen heading into the weekend. The correction off early morning highs was a gradual one and the 5 minute 20 sma served as strong support. The correction ended with the 10:15 ET correction period and the indices once again pushed to new intraday highs.

The market held correction periods very well throughout the day on Tuesday. The 10:45 ET correction period held as the second level of resistance, leading to another gradual correction into the 11:15 ET correction period. Once again, a new highs formed into noon. This break to new highs was a minor one. The indices had struck price resistance from the beginning of the month and had trouble pushing through it after the extreme upside from the morning. A long intraday trading range followed until the final 30 minutes of trade. A smaller base formed in the upper end of the larger 15 minute range from 15:00 into 15:30 ET that helped confirm the upside bias for a late day rally into the closing bell.

S&P 500 ($SPX)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) ended the session on Tuesday at 10,268.81 with a gain of 169.67 points, or 1.68%. The top leaders were Bank of America (BAC) (+4.91%), Alcoa (AA) (+3.46%), General Electric (GE) (+3.15%), and American Express (+3.12%). Financial shares were strong thanks to news that credit card delinquencies declined in January. Despite the strong overall upside, two Dow components still failed to cross into positive territory. They were Pfizer (PFE) (-0.45%) and Kraft Foods (KFT) (-0.41%).

The S&P 500 ($SPX) rose 19.36 points, or 1.80%, and closed at 1,094.87. The top gainers in the S&P 500 were Western Digital (WDC) (+6.85%), International Paper (IP) (+6.78%), Genuine Parts (GPC) (+6.70%), Range Res. Corp. (RRC) (+6.69%), and United States Steel (X) (+6.59%). At the other end of the spectrum were Dynegy Inc. (DYN) (-4.85%), Cintas (CTAS) (-3.46%), and Amazon.com (AMZN) (-1.78%).

Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX)

The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX) rose 30.66 points, or 1.40%, and it closed at 2,214.19 on Tuesday.Nii Holdings (NIHD) was again a top leader in the Nasdaq-100, rising 5.60%. It was followed by a 5.51% gain in Seagate Technology (STX) and a 5.44% gain in First Solar (FSLR). CTAS and AMZN were the top losers.

In other markets, crude oil futures jumped from $74.13 on Friday to $77.01 a barrel on Tuesday. Gold rose from $1,090.00 an ounce on Friday to $1,118.00 an ounce on Tuesday. The dollar also slipped. The euro posted its largest single day gain against the dollar in about 8 months, rising more than 1.3%. The current bias in the overall market is still bullish on a 30 minute time frame.

Market Ends Higher Despite Choppy Week of Trade

noreply@blogger.com (Toni Hansen) — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 05:51:00 +0000

Market Ends Higher Despite Choppy Week of Trade

(Note: Unless otherwise stated, the index action described below relates to the EMini futures contracts for the respective indices. Actual index action may differ slightly in terms of pattern formation, although the market bias will remain the same.)

Good day! As I noted in Thursday's evening column, the index futures were bearish on the all-sessions time frame heading into the early morning hours on Friday. It wasn't until nearly 5:00 am ET, however, that the indices began to see strong follow-through on that bias. When it materialized, it didn't bother to look back. The futures fell sharply on weakness overseas following a move by The People's Bank of China to raise the reserve ratio by 0.5% that banks must set aside as additional protection.

After an hour of heavy downside, the indices did find some initial support around 6:00 am ET, but resumed the move lower at about 9:00 am ET. In other news overseas, the euro-zone's gross domestic product rose 0.1% in the fourth quarter, but remained down 2.1% from a year earlier. Economists were expecting it to rise 0.3% for the quarter with a year-over-year decline of 1.9%.

Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI)

There was news on the domestic front as well thanks to a delay in reporting brought about by yet another major snow storm in Washington. Among them was the Commerce Department's report on retail sales, which showed a rise in January by 0.5% to beat expectations. Excluding autos, sales were up 0.6%, which was in line with expectations. Consumer confidence, however, was mixed. The University of Michigan/Reuters survey on consumer confidence fell from 74.4 in January to 73.7 this month. Economists had been expecting a move higher to 76. The index measuring near-term expectations fell from 70.1 to 66.9.

The premarket selling in the index futures led to an extreme gap lower. These have an easier time filling than in individual stocks. The bulls had support from multiple lows for the week on the 15 minute time frame in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average, as well as the 5 and 15 minute 200 period simple moving averages in the Nasdaq futures. This zone served very well and held as Friday's intraday lows.

The typical strategy I use to play a larger-than-average gap in the indices is to mark the 15 minute highs and lows and take a position in the direction in which that level breaks. The odds are always strongest when there is a larger-time-frame reason to support the position as well, such as the 15 minute support levels that hit on Friday within the larger trading range/trend channel. On Friday the market turned higher almost immediately following the establishment of the 15 minute lows, although it took a lot longer to gain momentum.

S&P 500 ($SPX)

The first 2-2.5 hours of the day were spent primarily in a trading range. Even though the bias within the range remained bullish, it wasn't until noon that the market managed to finally show strong confirmation. All three of the major indices closed the gap zone within half an hour, but the Nasdaq was the clear leader. It rallied all the way back to the weekly highs before stalling into 12:30 ET. Both levels served as resistance and the market held into the mid-afternoon. The indices retraced a large portion of the early-morning rally, but hit support again into 13:30 ET. Momentum shifted again at support at that time and rallied strongly into slightly higher highs at 14:30 ET.

The deeper correction between upside moves kept the overall momentum on the gradual side, despite strong intraday setups. This went along with our expectations heading into the session. A third rally took place within this afternoon uptrend channel in the final 30 minutes of the day and into the start of Monday's holiday trading.

Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) ended the session on Friday at 10,099.14 with a loss of 45.05 points, or 0.44%. Intel (INTC) was the best-performer in the Dow. It rose 1.84%, followed by a 0.50% gain in Travelers (TRV). A handful of other Dow components also posted gains, but they were minor. The top losers were Alcoa (AA) (-2.21%), Boeing (BA) (-1.55%), United Technologies (UTX) (-1.53%), and General Electric (GE) (-1.40%). The index ended the week higher by 0.9%.

The S&P 500 ($SPX) fell 2.96 points, or 0.27%, and closed at 1,075.51. The S&P 500 also rose 0.9% for the week. The top leaders on Friday were Motorola (MOT) (+7.52%), JDS Uniphase (JDSU) (+6.57%), Office Depot (ODP) (+6.01%), and McAfee (MFE) (+5.12%). The top losers were Adobe (ADBE) (-3.65%), Allegheny Energy (AYE) (-3.52%), Textron Inc. (TXT) (-3.38), and Sprint Nextel (S) (-3.07%).

The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX) rose 6.12 points, or 0.28%, and it closed at 2,183.53 on Friday.The Nasdaq stood out with a weekly gain of 2% thanks to technology shares. Research In Motion (RIMM) was the best-performer in the Nasdaq-100 on Friday. It rose 3.12%. Nii Holdings (NIHD) (+2.76%) and Qualcomm (QCOM) (+2.18%) followed. Adobe (ADBE) (-3.65%) and Wynn Resorts (WYNN) (-2.96%) were the biggest losers.

In other markets, the dollar index rose, while Crude oil futures fell $1.15 a barrel to settle at $74.13. Gold fell $1.30 an ounce and settled at $1,093.

The intraday bias in the indices is slightly bullish heading into the shortened trading week, but there is still room for another attempt to push lower on a 60 minute time frame before a larger correction off the month's lows takes place. This will continue to leave me treating the larger daily setups more cautiously and instead place more emphasis on shorter-term, intraday setups. We are starting to see some exceptions start to develop, however one more pull lower will decrease risk on swingtrade buy setups coming off this daily support zone. This would change the pace of the overall selling even further, allowing the market to react more strongly on the upside when buying comes back in.